Tuesday NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: Expect Assists From Draymond Green & Terrence Ross (Feb. 2)
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Draymond Green.
- The NBA Tuesday slate features two sixth men with potentially profitable props on the table.
- Brandon Anderson breaks down props for Louis Williams, Terrence Ross, and Draymond Green.
- Check out each breakdown complete with a pick below.
It’s Groundhog’s Day, and if you keep playing the props in this column, you’re consistently hitting two of the three bets each day and might be starting to feel like you’re living the same profitable day over and over again.
We hit two of these three yesterday, so let’s do it again — or make it a clean sweep.
It’s Sixth Man Day here at The Action Network, with two of our three props coming from bench gunners with shifting roles.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Lou Williams, Under 12.5 Points (-104)
|Clippers at Nets||Clippers -1.5 (PointsBet)|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
Folks, it might just about be a wrap with Lou Williams.
Williams is 34 years old but is starting to look ancient at times. He’s either not fully healthy, or he’s just lost a step, which was always bound to happen as Sweet Lou hit his mid-30s.
Williams has been a dynamic bench scorer for years. He’s won Sixth Man of the Year three times and is just about always a contender for the award, but he’s got no shot this season.
After averaging 18, 23, 20, and 18 points per game in the past four seasons, Williams has plummeted all the way to just 9.4 PPG this year.
He’s no longer getting to the rim as often, and he’s not finishing there, either. Williams’ 2-point attempts are nearly halved from two years ago, and he’s shooting a paltry 39% inside the arc. He’s also not getting to the line anymore.
These are all things that happen when a player gets older and loses that burst. Father Time remains undefeated.
Williams has gone under 12.5 points in 14-of-19 games this season, and in three of the games he’s gone over, the Clippers were missing Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, or both. In games with that superstar duo on the court together, Williams drops even further to 8.3 PPG.
PG and Kawhi are playing tonight, so grab that Lou Will under. There’s always the chance he ignites any given game, and there will be plenty of scoring in this one, but from what it looks like this season, it’s going to have to come from the rest of the roster.
Draymond Green, Over 5.5 Assists (-139)
|Celtics at Warriors||Celtics -1.5 (DraftKings)|
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
The return of Draymond Green has enlivened the Warriors.
Remember when Golden State was getting blown off the court those first couple games of the season? The Warriors lost their first two by 65 points combined, and everybody seemed ready to write them off. But they’ve had a +2.6 Net Rating since then, along with a very respectable 11-7 record.
Green’s return has been a huge part of that. His presence changes everything defensively for this team, and though we can’t really do much with Draymond’s defense in the props world, we can definitely play his assists.
Green isn’t exactly filling up the box score this season. He’s at 4.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game, recording single-doubles on the regular these days. He’s the perfect example of a player whose game contributions far outshine his box score lines.
Still, the assist numbers are Green’s highest since 2018, and that’s all the more impressive when you consider that he’s playing only 26 minutes a game. This is Draymond’s career-high assist rate, and even in more limited minutes this year, he’s gone over 5.5 assists in 12-of-16 games (75%).
Green is listed as probable for this game, so there’s a chance he sits out, but if he does, you’ll get your money back.
This is a big game against a team that always plays the Warriors well, so I expect Draymond to play and be up for it. Two of those rare assist unders have come in two of Green’s three lowest minute totals of the year, but with James Wiseman sidelined with an injury, we should see an uptick in Draymond’s minutes too.
I’m tempted to grab the over 6.5 at FanDuel at +120 juice. We’re projecting Green at 7.4 dimes, and he’s gone over 6.5 in seven of his 16 games.
But at -139, our Props tool gives a slightly better edge to the over 5.5, so I’ll stick with that up to -150 or grab the over 6.5 at plus juice if it rises further.
Terrence Ross, Over 1.5 Assists (+126)
|Raptors at Magic||Raptors -6 (DraftKings)|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
It must feel like Groundhog’s Day for the poor Orlando Magic, who are waking up to yet another injury.
Jonathan Isaac got hurt in the Orlando bubble and will miss the entire season. Markelle Fultz tore his ACL, too, a few weeks ago, so that’s two starters down for the season.
Evan Fournier was out several weeks and just finally returned, but now Aaron Gordon will be sidelined for over a month. The Magic just can’t catch a break.
And with all those names missing, the Magic have been seriously struggling to find enough offense. There’s not a ton of scoring on this roster, and they’ve also been looking for shot creation.
Gordon will be missed on that end. The Magic had turned over the offense to “Point Gordon,” and he responded with 6.9 assists per game in a recent nine-game stretch before going leaving the lineup.
With Gordon missing, it’s back to the drawing board.
The most obvious beneficiary could be rookie point guard Cole Anthony, who’s had six assists in four of the last five games and finally seems to be finding his groove as a starter. I’ll consider playing his over 4.5 assists at DraftKings, too, but our Props tool likes Terrence Ross better.
Ross will not likely take Gordon’s starting spot. He’s Orlando’s bench gunner and should stay in that role, though it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him play a few more minutes.
He’s already at a career-high in minutes per game, and he should see even more of the ball now when he’s on the court.
We only need two dimes here, and Ross has had multiple assists in 11-of-20 games this season (55%).
Since Fultz got hurt, Ross has averaged 2.3 APG and has at least two dimes in 10-of-14 games, hitting this prop 71% of the time.
That might tick up even further with Gordon out, and all the better that we’re getting plus juice. I’ll play Ross to even odds.