NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: 3 Picks, Including Draymond Green and Tobias Harris (Tuesday, November 16)
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Tobias Harris.
We’re back with another Tuesday edition of NBA player props. There are three games on deck – with the marquee matchup tipping off at 7:30 pm ET with the Golden State Warriors headed to Brooklyn to face the Nets. There’s nothing better than watching a couple MVP frontrunners go at it in primetime! The rest of the slate includes the Sixers taking on the Utah Jazz at 10:00 p.m. ET followed by the Spurs and Clippers to close out the night at 10:30 p.m. ET.
Today’s props feature a player from each matchup so let’s continue our great start to the season and dive right in.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop-bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Draymond Green over 6.5 Assists (-140)
|Warriors vs. Nets||Nets -2.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET|
Draymond Green has a fun matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, so I’m targeting his assist prop because he’ll be plenty busy exploiting the Nets’ shotty frontcourt on Tuesday. Green comes into tonight’s matchup averaging 7.1 assists this season, so the books keep it pretty tight with his assist line at 6.5.
But Green’s been dishing it out consistently over his previous 10 games, averaging 7.3 dimes and exceeding the 6.5 thresholds at a 70% clip over that span. Going back to last season, Draymond’s cleared 6.5 assists in 22 of his previous 30 games (73%).
He’s averaging a whopping 13.8 potential assists per game, which leads the Warriors, along with his 7.1 assists per contest. He’s done a great job of getting the ball to his playmakers as well. Of Green’s 92 assists this season, 27 have gone to Steph Curry, 21 to Andrew Wiggins, and 20 to Jordan Poole – with the rest being spread out amongst his teammates, per PBPstats.
Brooklyn has been stingy against the pass, allowing the sixth-fewest assists per game in the NBA. Still, Green has registered eight assists in their last matchup and will have plenty of pick-and-roll opportunities against the Nets’ underwhelming frontcourt of Blake Griffin and LaMarcus Aldridge.
Our action props tool projects Green to tally 8.7 assists with a bet quality rating of 10 out of 10. In what should be the game of the night, betting on Draymond, the man facilitating the best offense in the league is something I can’t pass up. Over!
Tobias Harris over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-120)
|Sixers vs. Jazz||Jazz +10.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET|
Since returning from health and safety protocols, the Sixers have lost two straight games. It doesn’t get any easier on Tuesday, going up against the Utah Jazz. The Jazz haven’t been as dominant on the defensive end compared to last season, but they’re still 11th in Defensive Efficiency according to NBA Advanced Stats this year.
The Sixers have been shorthanded for most of the year, but Tobias Harris has unquestionably been their best player when active. He’s averaging career-highs in rebounds (9.2) and assists (4.4) through eight games, and his prop line for rebounds and assists sits at 10.5 tonight.
Harris has gone over 10.5 rebounds + assists in 8 of his last 10 games, with an average of 13.2 rebounds assists over that span. Dating back to last season, Harris went over this line in both contests versus Utah, going for 12 in both games.
With Tobias Harris being the focal point of the Sixers offense, expect for the Jazz to scheme against him, considering he’s been their most prolific scorer for Philly this season at 21.3 points per game. Harris’ shot has been known to disappear at times which is why his rebounds and assists prop is enticing in a matchup where Philly is 10.5 point road dogs. He’s seen a career-high 26.8 usage rate and ranks second on the team in passes made per game (45.9) and first in potential assists (7.9).
FantasyLabs projects Harris to play 35 minutes with the Sixers looking to get back on track in the win column; he should continue to fill up the box score. Our action projection tool has Harris amassing 12 rebounds + assists. I’m going over.
Devin Vassell over 11.5 Points (+105)
|Spurs vs. Clippers||Clippers +7.5|
|Time | TV||10:30 p.m. ET|
The Spurs have a ton of young talent, but unfortunately, consistent scoring has been hard to come by. Spurs SG Derrick White was expected to step up, but he’s been slumping hard, shooting 38% from the field this season. But recently, Devin Vassell is the one standing out alongside Dejounte Murray. Despite coming off the bench, the second-year pro has delivered 12.8 points per game in 26.4 minutes per contest. Vassell’s points prop is at 11.5, which is good value at plus-money against a Clippers team allowing 17.8 points per game to opposing small forwards this season.
Vassell has seen an increase in minutes in his last two games, playing a shade under 30 minutes against the Mavs and Lakers. He’s averaging 18 points per game over his last three contests and 13.8 ƒpg over his last 10. He’s gone over 11.5 points in six of his previous seven games too. His usage rate is 19.2%, which is higher than Derrick White’s
Spurs HC Greg Popovich is giving him more playing time because he’s positively impacting the game when on the court. His plus-minus on the court per 100 possessions is +6.0 and has the highest net rating per 100 possessions amongst Spurs that have played 300+ minutes at +13.7.
The Spurs are 7.5-point road dogs on Tuesday night. And no matter how this game script shakes out (close or a blowout), Vassell will be logging at least 26 minutes. Vassell is averaging 15.8 points per game across six games against the top-8 in the Western Conference. Given his track record of success this season, I’m taking the over on him, as well, to finish out our props.
If you want to turn up, this 3-leg parlay comes out to +544. Let it ride!