NBA Player Prop Picks: Our 2 Best Bets To Target In Spurs vs. Hornets on Monday (March 22)
Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Caris LeVert
- Monday night's Spurs-Hornets game may not capture much national attention, but we see value on a prop from each side.
- NBA betting analyst Brandon Anderson breaks down three player props to bet, including for DeMar DeRozan and P.J. Washington.
Well we certainly had a blast all weekend with March Madness, but let’s get back to the professionals, shall we? The great part about NBA player props is that we have so much more data to go on, and that NBA players are far more predictable than college dudes.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
DeMar DeRozan Under 0.5 3-Pointers (-113)
|Spurs vs. Hornets||Spurs -5|
|Time||8:30 p.m. ET|
DeMar DeRozan does not shoot a ton of 3-pointers. Maybe you’ve heard.
He’s basically stopped shooting 3s entirely since coming to San Antonio, making 34 total in three seasons with the Spurs. That’s 34 in 177 games — just one every 5.2 games — and he’s shooting 25% behind the arc over that stretch.
To be fair, DeRozan’s shooting is “up” this season. He’s already made more 3s this season (18) than his first two with the Spurs combined, and he’s up from 0.5 attempts per game to 1.8.
Still … not a lot of shooting here.
Could that change against the Hornets? It’s possible. Charlotte allows the second-most 3-point attempts and makes in the entire NBA, so DeRozan will likely get his chances. But this is DeMar DeRozan, and I just can’t resist.
DeRozan hasn’t even attempted a 3-pointer in seven games this season, and he’s taken zero or one attempt in almost half his games. He’s only hit a 3 in 12 games this year. That’s 12-of-32, so he’s gone under 0.5 in 62.5% of his games. This prop gets even better when you notice that DeRozan has made 10 of his 18 3s this year in just four games.
Maybe this is one of those four with Charlotte’s poor perimeter defense, but I have to find out. Any time you give me near even odds on DeRozan not making a 3, I’m taking that bet. Our tool gives us nearly a 21% edge in our favor. The math here suggests playing as high as -160.
P.J. Washington Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-111)
|Hornets at Spurs||Hornets +5|
|Time||8:30 p.m. ET|
Let’s stay in the same game and grab a guy from the other side.
You have to feel for the poor Charlotte Hornets. They were finally — FINALLY! — relevant again and playing meaningful basketball games, and now the LaMelo Ball news is devastating. Ball has a broken wrist and will miss the rest of the season.
The Hornets are also without Cody Zeller again, which is leaving a bigger role available for Washington. It might be time for the Hornets to find out what exactly they have in the talented youngster.
Washington is not the flashiest player, but he’s a good all-around prospect. He hits the boards hard, passes well, defends and makes smart plays. He rarely lights up the scoreboard, but he does the little things.
With Ball and Zeller out, there are more of those little things to go around. No Zeller means more rebounding opportunities, and no Ball means more passing and touches. And since the Spurs tend to play small, this is also a great spot for Washington to get some extra run as a small-ball center.
Over the last 10 games, Washington is averaging 6.5 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game. He’s had at least eight rebounds in half of them, and he had multiple assists in seven straight during the stretch and has always been an underrated passer.
We project Washington at 8.2 rebounds and 2.9 assists and I like both of those overs, so this is a good spot to grab the combo prop. I’ll play this over up to -135.
Caris LeVert Under 4.5 Assists (+113)
|Pacers at Bucks||Bucks -5.5|
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
It sure is great to see Caris LeVert back out on a basketball court, and the Indiana Pacers look like another team entirely with him. The Pacers just swept a pair of games against the previously red-hot Miami Heat. It’s amazing what having a real starting-caliber NBA wing out there can do for you. Indiana has been short both of theirs all season, and LeVert is making a difference.
Still, the books are setting LeVert’s prop lines too high.
His counting stats have been inflated in the past in a bigger role. He was taking more shots and spending more time on the ball as a creator in the past. Sometimes that was as a sixth man engine, and other times it was running the show for a shorthanded team.
The Pacers are neither of those things. This is a much more balanced team, and this offense will always flow through Domantas Sabonis, with Malcolm Brogdon acting as the secondary playmaker.
LeVert did have seven assists in one of those Heat games, but he’s had 12 in his four other Pacers games combined. He’s averaging an assist every 8.3 minutes with Indiana right now, and Milwaukee is a tough defense, even if Giannis Antetokounmpo sits.
LeVert’s lines are still a touch high, and I like getting the plus juice here. I’d play at any plus number.