NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: 3 Picks for Sunday including Tyrese Haliburton & Julius Randle (Sunday, May 2)
Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Tyrese Haliburton.
It’s a busy Sunday in the NBA, with eight games on the docket, beginning at 3:30 p.m. ET. There was only one afternoon game between the Nets and Bucks, so tonight’s props are catered to the night games.
There are plenty of notable players on Sunday’s injury report, so we’re targeting the players that have a clean bill of health entering tonight’s action.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Seth Curry over 12.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts (-125)
|Sixers vs. Spurs||Spurs -6|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
Seth Curry found success in his first matchup against the Spurs this season, dropping 21 points with four rebounds and four assists across 26 minutes. Opposing shooting guards average 22.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game against San Antonio this season. While I don’t believe Curry will hit those numbers, his current points, rebounds and assists market is attractive at 12.5 points, and here’s why.
Coming into Sunday’s bout, Curry has exceeded 12.5 points, rebounds, and assists in three of his last four games that Philadelphia is the favorite, per Fansure. The Sixers are six-point favorites on Sunday, and Dejounte Murray is questionable for the contest. Should he not play, Lonnie Walker would backfill Murray’s minutes alongside DeMar DeRozan. According to StatMuse, Walker has a defensive efficiency rating of 115.1 this season, which is less than ideal. More impressively, Curry is averaging 18.1 combined points, rebounds and assists in his last four contests.
Curry is averaging 12.1 points per game this season, but that number in April is down to 10.2 points. Given his inconsistency in the scoring department, I’m hedging this bet with his assists and rebounding production. He’s remained steady throughout the season in these areas, averaging a shade over two assists and two rebounds.
Joel Embiid was inactive in Philadelphia’s first meeting with the Spurs, during which Curry attempted 16 shots in that game. The Sixers have been managing Embiid’s minutes lately at 25 per game in his last five contests. After this game, the Sixers face five teams below .500 to close out the season. Don’t be surprised if the Sixers begin monitoring the minutes of all of their stars as the season winds down, which bodes well for Curry to be more involved in the offense.
The Action Labs Player Prop tool projects Curry to produce 16.0 points, rebounds and assists tonight, and so I’ll play this line up to 13.5. With a bet quality rating of 9.0, I’m taking over on Curry’s combo market.
Tyrese Haliburton over 3.5 rebounds (+140)
|Kings vs. Mavericks||Mavericks -6.5|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
The newly anointed point guard for the Kings has been dishing out a ton of assists with De’Aaron Fox on the sidelines due to health and safety protocols. In his last five games, Haliburton is averaging 8.4 assists per contest, but I’m playing his rebound line tonight.
Haliburton hasn’t been too successful in the rebounding department of late, pulling down 3.0 boards per game over his last five games. However, the Mavs let up five to Haliburton in their previous matchup, which the Kings won 113-106.
Sacramento will be missing two of its top players in Fox and Harrison Barnes, leaving more opportunity for the rookie guard to hit the glass. According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Mavericks have allowed 22.4 rebounds per game to opposing guards over their last 10 games, which is 13th in the NBA over that span.
Haliburton’s usage rate goes up to 24.2% with Fox and Barnes off the floor. He’ll be more involved in every facet of the game on Sunday night, including hitting the glass.
The game total sits as the third highest of the slate (227) and with a potentially high-scoring affair, our projections have Haliburton pulling down 3.8 rebounds. I’m going over here with plus odds and a bet quality rating of 8 out of 10.
Julius Randle over 9.5 rebounds (-115)
|Knicks vs. Rockets||Rockets +10.5|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
The Knicks have been the punching bag of the NBA for years, but they appear to have finally turned a corner. Tom Thibodeau gets some of the credit, but it’s been the play of Julius Randle that has morphed this Knicks team into the bullies of the NBA.
The Rockets play host to the visiting Knicks on Sunday night, with New York having won 10 of its last 11 games. These teams played earlier in the season, and the Knicks won by a convincing 121-99 margin. Randle finished the game with 22 points and nine rebounds in 33 minutes. Even though Randle didn’t hit the 9.5 line in their first contest, I think he’ll be more effective on the glass in tonight’s matchup.
The Rockets are fully committed to the youth movement. We saw Kevin Porter Jr. go off for 50 points with 11 assists last week against the Bucks.
Over their past 15 games, Randle is averaging 21% of the Knicks’ rebounding total. New York is hitting a grueling five-game road trip, and this will be Randle’s easiest opponent to crash the glass against. He’s averaging 10.4 rebounds this season and 10.1 specifically against Western Conference opponents. His rebounding numbers fell a bit in April to nine rebounds per game, but Houston is the worst rebounding team in the NBA, so Randle has a solid chance to tally up rebounds.
New York is on the front end of a back-to-back set, which could factor into Randle’s minutes a bit, but he’s averaged a smidge under 10 rebounds per game with three days rest this season (9.8).
Our projections have Randle grabbing 11.9 rebounds, and with a bet quality rating of 10, I’m going over.
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