NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: 3 Picks, Including Harrison Barnes & Tyrese Haliburton (Thursday, April 15)
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Sacramento Kings standout Tyrese Haliburton.
- We have three picks from four games on the NBA player prop radar for Thursday night.
- Brandon Anderson breaks down his favorite plays, which are highlighted by Tyrese Haliburton.
The Sacramento Kings might not exactly be the apple of anyone’s eye. The poor Kings might be the only team legitimately trying to stay in the play-in race for the No. 10 seed and still coming up way short.
Sacramento is now on an eight-game losing streak. However, the nice thing about player props is that team wins and losses don’t count for anything. It’s all about overs and unders, and we’re grabbing one of each with the Kings on Thursday’s limited, four-game card.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Kevon Looney, Under 13.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)
|Warriors vs. Cavaliers||Warriors -6.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Kevon Looney has certainly had his fun against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Looney is an NBA champion, and he did it against this team.
Yet, these are not those old Cavaliers and they’re not the old Warriors either. And even when it was, it’s not like Kevon Looney had a major starring role in those wins. He fights hard on the glass, sets good screens and plays team defense, but he doesn’t exactly fill up the box score.
Looney is starting again now that James Wiseman is out injured, but that doesn’t mean his numbers or even minutes will go up. Looney is averaging just 17.3 minutes per game in 17 starts this season, versus 15.4 MPG off the bench. The starter production has ticked up just a little, from 3.4 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game off the bench to 4.2/4.9/2.2 as a starter.
It’s still not much, and our Props Tool is fading Looney at every angle. I’m going to avoid the assists. Looney has at least three assists in eight of the last 10 games, and the way Steph Curry is shooting right now, you can basically just pass him the ball anywhere on the court and get an assist.
Instead, I’ll fade the points and rebounds. Looney had 14 points + rebounds last game to go over this line, but had gone under it in 11 in a row before that contest. He’s actually gone under 13.5 PR in 40 of 44 games this season, hitting this under 91% of the time, in part because he’s had two or fewer points in almost half of his games.
As long as he doesn’t get too many easy ones, this should be another good under. I’ll play the combo prop to -140 odds.
Tyrese Haliburton, Over 1.5 3-Pointers (+100)
|Kings vs. Suns||Suns -12.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Tyrese Haliburton is having a heck of a rookie season for the Sacramento Kings, and he’s still very much in the running for Rookie of the Year as we head toward the final month of the season.
Haliburton is averaging 12.9 points, 3.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game, and he might already be the second-best player on the Kings. Haliburton was always going to be a positive team player, because he does so many things well. Haliburton has an outstanding natural feel for the game. He’s a superb passer with a strong IG, plus he’s a good defender with his long limbs.
Haliburton can really shoot as well. You’d never know it from that wonky form, but the results speak for themselves. Haliburton has made 84% of his NBA free throws, and he’s shooting 40.8% from behind the arc as a rookie, averaging 2.1 threes per game on 5.1 attempts.
Haliburton has made multiple 3s in 32 of 49 games this season, hitting this more than 65% of the time. His minutes are also ticking up a bit. Even though Haliburton is no longer starting, he’s still averaging around 32 minutes a game since he was initially moved into the starting lineup a month ago and playing almost that much off the bench over the past week.
Haliburton has taken at least four 3s in all, but nine games this season. He went under 1.5 made 3s in all nine of those games. That also means he’s gone over 1.5 threes in 32 of 40 games when he gets at least four treys up. That’s an 80% success rate as long as the attempts are there.
Let’s hope the attempts are there against the Suns. They should be against a very good team with Sacramento, which will likely be trailing much of the game. This looks like a great bet at even odds, and I’d play it up to -135 odds.
Harrison Barnes, Under 7.5 rebounds (-114)
|Kings vs. Suns||Kings -12|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
If Haliburton isn’t the second-best player yet on the Kings, it’s because Harrison Barnes still is. Barnes has become one of the NBA’s more steady and unspectacular role players, and he’s quietly having a very nice season.
Barnes is averaging career highs on the glass and as a passer. He’s at 6.8 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game, and his 36.3 minutes per game are also a career best. Really, this might well be Barnes’s best season as a pro, and that’s saying something for a guy who started all season on a 73-9 team.
Sports books have adjusted Barnes’ increased production and adjusted his lines upward, though, but it seems they have gone too far. Even with Barnes rebounding more this year, he’s still gone under 7.5 rebounds in 34 of 52 games. That’s an under 65% of the time, nearly two in every three games.
That rate has held up in recent games as well. Over the past nine games, Barnes is averaging 7.2 RPG, even higher than his season-long rate, with games of 11, 12, and 14 rebounds — but he still went under 7.5 in all six other games, averaging just 4.7 RPG in those six outings.
Barnes has shown he has the potential to go way over at times, but he’s going under more often than not. We project him at 6.7 boards in this contest. That makes this worth a play up to -135 odds.