This story is usually part of our EDGE subscription but is free for all to read today!
Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with our FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Thursday’s best props focus on both of the slate's late games:
- Los Angeles Clippers at Sacramento Kings: 10:30p.m. ET on TNT
- Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers: 10:30 p.m. ET
Let's dive right in.
Kings PF Marvin Bagley
The Pick: Over 13 points (-114)
The only thing that has stopped Bagley this season has been a lack of playing time.
Despite drafting him second overall — ahead of players like Jaren Jackson Jr., Luka Doncic and Trae Young — Bagley has averaged just 24 minutes per game. That said, things appear to be changing in Sacramento.
Bagley has played at least 30 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 18 points in each of those contests. He's been productive when on the court this season, averaging 19.1 points per 36 minutes, so this line is simply too low if he's going to continue to see increased minutes.
He's also in a nice spot against the Clippers, who have played at the ninth-fastest pace this season. The Kings' resulting implied team total of 116.5 points ranks second on the slate.
I'm all in on Bagley on Thursday. The over has a Bet Quality of 10 in our Player Prop tool, and I’d play it up to -180 at the current number.
Pacers PG Darren Collison
The Pick: Over nine points (-167)
You have to lay a lot of juice with this prop, but Collison is in a wonderful spot against the Lakers.
For starters, Victor Oladipo remains out with a knee injury, and Collison has seen a slight bump in usage with Oladipo off the court this season. Collison could see more minutes with Oladipo out of the lineup, too: He played 32 minutes in the Pacers' game against the Suns on Tuesday.
This is also an extreme pace-up spot for the Pacers, one of the slowest-paced teams in the league. The total on this game has already increased by 3.5 points since opening, and 79% of the money wagered is coming in on the over as of writing (see live data here). The Pacers could definitely exceed their season average of just 106.5 points per game in this contest.
Collison is coming off 11 points in his last game in a similar spot, so I think there’s decent value on the over. I wouldn’t play it at much higher than -167 though.
