Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Friday: Will D’Angelo Russell Grab 4 Rebounds?
Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brooklyn Nets guard D’Angelo Russell
- Chris Raybon breaks down his favorite NBA player props for Friday night.
- Props include Spurs PG Derrick White's points, Nets PG D'Angelo Russell's rebounds and Lakers C JaVale McGee's points.
We were lucky to go 2-1 yesterday after typical late-season lineup shenanigans sent Nic Batum to the bench, so let’s try and finish the week strong.
The three NBA player props highlighted below are from the following two games:
- San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets: 8 p.m. ET (NBA TV)
- Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Lakers: 10:30 p.m. ET
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 4:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Spurs PG Derrick White
THE PICK: Under 11.5 Points (-125)
With Patty Mills running hot and Rudy Gay spending more time with the starting unit, White has seen his playing time dip to just 23.4 minutes over his past four games, and he found himself watching from the sidelines for most of the fourth quarter of his team’s 110-105 loss to the Heat on Wednesday.
With Gay as a small-ball four alongside LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar Derozan, White’s points per 36 minutes plummets by 4.5 points to just 9.4, per our NBA On/Off tool. So any potential minutes reduction should hurt a player who averages just 9.9 points in 25.6 minutes per game on the season.
Our NBA Player Models have White projected for about that many tonight (26.0), and given that the second-year guard out of Colorado has gone over 11.5 in just 22-of-57 (38.6%) games, this prop should have value up to -165.
Nets PG D’Angelo Russell
THE PICK: Over 3.5 Rebounds (-130)
Russell returns to the city where his infamous prank on Swaggy P went terribly wrong, and though Swaggy and ex-fiancé Iggy Azalea haven’t rebounded, Russell should be able to against his former team.
The Lakers are tied for the fifth-most rebounds per game allowed to backcourts per 48 minutes on the season at 6.4 per player, according to Hoops Stats, and that number has ballooned to an NBA-high 7.8 since the All-Star break.
D-Russ is coming off a two-game stretch in which he put up 76 total points, so he should be a safe bet to log 30-plus minutes in LA with the Nets still fighting for their playoff lives. Our NBA Player Models have him projected for 33.5 minutes tonight, which should be more than enough time to collect four rebounds for a player who has done so in 34-of-54 (63.0%) games in which he played at least 26 minutes.
I’d play this up to -170, but at -130, our props tool gives it a perfect 10 rating in bet quality, and rebound props rated as such have gone 201-119-12 (62.8%) since the start of the season.
Lakers C JaVale McGee
THE PICK: Under 12.5 Points (+100)
Even with McGee playing more minutes of late, you’d be Shaq’tin a fool not to play the under on this prop.
In 14 starts since the trade deadline, McGee has cleared 12.5 points only four times (28.5%), and that includes going under in two of the last three in which he played 30-plus minutes.
That trend is more likely than not to continue against the Nets with Jarrett Allen at the pivot. Allen is 14th in the NBA in Defensive Box Plus/Minus, and he’s a big reason why the Nets are top-five in field goal percentage allowed to centers in since the All-Star break (48.6%, per Hoops Stats).
Overall, McGee has scored 12 or fewer points in 34-of-51 (66.7%) starts, so even with accounting for a potential minutes increase, under 12.5 should have value up to -150.
McGee scored exactly 12 in 11.9% of his starts, however, so I wouldn’t play under 12 at much higher than standard juice, though it is worth noting that even at under 12 (-115), this prop is rated a 10 by the tool, and points props rated a 9 or higher have gone 440-263-9 (62.6%) since the start of the season.
I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there as well.