Friday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Dec. 20): Will Drummond Dominate Glass vs. Celtics?
Pictured: Pistons C Andre Drummond (0), Photo Credit: Raj Mehta-USA Today Sports
- Friday's 10-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on Wizards C Ian Mahinmi, Pistons C Andre Drummond and Heat SF Duncan Robinson.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s nine games:
- Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics: 7:30 p.m. ET
- New York Knicks at Miami Heat: 8 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Wizards C Ian Mahinmi
THE PICK: Under 8.5 points (-134)
Mahinmi’s minutes appear to be capped at around 24 at the moment. The Wizards were down virtually every big man on their roster in their last game, and he still didn’t see an increase in playing time. That obviously limits his upside in the scoring department.
I don’t like his chances of hitting the over today in a difficult matchup vs. the Raptors. They’re dealing with some injuries at the moment, but they’re still one of the best defensive teams in the league. They rank second in defensive efficiency, allowing the fifth-fewest points per game in the paint. Mahinmi does all of his damage in the interior, so this is a poor matchup for him.
This prop has significant value barring a large increase in minutes for Mahinmi. I’d play the under up to -160.
Pistons C Andre Drummond
THE PICK: Over 16.5 rebounds (+100)
This is such an astronomically high number, and yet I still find myself wanting to take the over. Everything is set up for Drummond to crush the Celtics on the glass. The team will be without both Blake Griffin and Christian Wood, so Drummond should see a few additional minutes.
He played over 37 in his last game and pulled down 18 boards. Drummond has increased his rebound rate in 12 games without Griffin this season, resulting in an average of 17.6 rebounds per 36 minutes.
The Celtics are also one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, ranking merely 22nd in team rebound rate.
I’m happy to roll the dice on this prop at even money, but I’d be willing to play it up to -115.
Heat SF Duncan Robinson
THE PICK: Under 11.5 points (-125)
Robinson has been asked to carry a larger workload than usual recently for the Heat, who have been dealing with a couple of key injuries. That said, Goran Dragic could potentially return to the lineup tonight, which would likely result in a steep decrease in minutes.
Robinson is currently projected for just 26.5 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models, which is significantly lower than the 38.2 minutes he played in his last game. Robinson has scored 11 points or fewer in 17 of his first 28 games, so I think this is an excellent time to sell high on him.
I love this prop if Dragic is able to suit up and would play it up to -150 in that situation. If Dragic is out, I wouldn’t play it at much higher than -125.