The Oklahoma City Thunder (2-0) and Phoenix Suns (0-2) will meet in Game 3 in the first round of the NBA Playoffs this afternoon. Tipoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET from the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Thunder are 9.5-point favorites over the Suns on the spread (Thunder -9.5), with the over/under set at 214.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -395 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Phoenix is +310 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Suns predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, April 25.
Thunder vs Suns Prediction
- Thunder vs Suns pick: Thunder -9.5 (-110)
My Thunder vs. Suns Game 3 best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Thunder vs Suns Game 3 Odds
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 214.5 -110o / -110u | -395 |
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 214.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
Thunder vs Suns NBA Playoffs Game 3 Preview
Phoenix Suns Betting Preview, Analysis
The Suns fell into the same trap that everyone falls into against the Thunder: thinking that if they win the officiating ethical battle, they’ll win the war.
After postgame comments about the officials and the national conversation they sparked, the Suns are still down 0-2. Once you get caught up in these conversations about fairness, you’ve already lost the plot.
You just have to play through the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander free throws and harassing defense from Oklahoma City's wings. If you’re not focused on the game, their execution destroys you.
But, the series does turn to Phoenix for Game 3 today — which should help, in theory.
The problem is Phoenix’s injuries. The Suns really need a big to be able to throw at the Thunder to create second-chance points and apply pressure at the rim in pick-and-roll. Without Mark Williams, they don’t really have that, and trying to match OKC in small-ball never goes well.
Jordan Goodwin is also questionable, and he’s their best perimeter defender. Grayson Allen is questionable as well, who is one of their best shooters.
It’s a tough combination in a matchup where you need all hands on deck, and Phoenix still won't have that.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview, Analysis
Double-digit favorites on the road are shockingly good against the number.
Since 2003, road favorites of more than 9 points are 21-0 SU and 16-4-1 ATS.
The Thunder are currently listed as 9.5-point road favorites over the Suns in Game 3 today.
Thunder vs Suns Pick, Betting Analysis
Spread: Thunder -9.5
The Suns just don’t have enough firepower. They can’t stay out of foul trouble and can’t generate consistent offense.
I backed the Thunder as ridiculous 17-point favorites at home, but this number is a lot more reasonable, and the trend supports it.
Total: Under 214.5
The under is 26-17 in the Suns' home games this season, and with how their offense is likely to be compromised without Williams on the interior and Goodwin and Allen on the perimeter, it’s a good bet here as well.
The under is 6-2 in OKC road wins in the playoffs the last two seasons, and they’ve stifled a Suns team that simply can’t create shots for the right personnel.
Player Prop: Luguentz Dort Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
Lu Dort has gone over this line in three straight games, and the Suns have to leave him open to send help against SGA and on the interior without Williams.
Moore's Thunder vs Suns Best Bets
- Thunder -9.5 (-110)
- Under 214.5 (-110)
- Luguentz Dort Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-114)
