Thursday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Damian Lillard Assists, More
Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard.
- Thursday's features a three-game NBA slate: 76ers-Bulls, Wizards-Heat and Trail Blazers-Lakers.
- Today's best NBA prop bets will focus on Bradley Beal, Robert Covington and Damian Lillard
Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Thursday’s best NBA props focus on all three of today’s contests:
- Philadelphia 76ers vs. Chicago Bulls — 8 p.m. ET on TNT
- Washington Wizards vs. Miami Heat — 8 p.m. ET
- Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers — 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT
Let’s dive right in.
Wizards SG Bradley Beal
The Pick: Over 3.5 assists (-125)
Beal is coming off arguably his best season, particularly as a distributor. He averaged a career-best 4.5 assists, handing out at least four assists in 63.4% of the games he played in.
It should be noted that a lot of his numbers were accumulated with John Wall out of the lineup, but Beal still averaged 3.5 assists per 36 minutes when sharing the floor with Wall.
He’ll undoubtedly see at least a few minutes without Wall in this contest, and he’s projected for the second-most minutes of any player on today’s slate in our FantasyLabs Models.
The FantasyLabs tool has this rated as the best prop of the day, but the presence of Wall does scare me a little. I wouldn’t play it if it got higher than -140.
76ers SF Robert Covington
The Pick: Over 10.5 points (-114)
Covington struggled to score just eight points in his first game this season, but there are reasons to believe he can bounce back tonight vs. the Chicago Bulls.
First, he played more than 34 minutes against the Celtics, but shot just 30% from the field and 28.6% from 3-point range. He will almost definitely see some positive regression in those departments as the season progresses.
Second, this contest vs. Bulls should lead to much easier scoring opportunities. The Celtics ranked first in defensive efficiency last season, but the Bulls ranked just 28th.
The 76ers are implied for 116 points on today’s slate, which represents an increase of roughly six points when compared to their 12-month average (109.8).
Covington is a notoriously streaky shooter, but I like the 76ers to score a bunch of points tonight. I’d play this up to -145.
Blazers PG Damian Lillard
The Pick: Over 5.5 assists (-149)
This line doesn’t make much sense to me. Lillard averaged 6.6 assists per game last season, and this game against the Lakers seems like a prime spot for Portland to score a bunch of points.
The Blazers currently implied for 113.5 points, which is roughly eight points higher than Portland’s per-game average last season (105.6). Los Angeles played at a breakneck pace during the preseason, averaging the second-most possessions per 48 minutes.
I’m expecting the Blazers to put up a lot of points in this contest, so I’d play this line as high as -175.