Friday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Kevin Love Rebounds, More
David Richard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Cavaliers center Kevin Love (0) rebounds in the first quarter against the Toronto Raptors at Quicken Loans Arena
- Friday night features a nine-game NBA slate, including Magic-Hornets, Knicks-Nets, Cavs-T-Wolves and Kings-Pelicans
- This piece will focus on prop bets featuring Nikola Mirotic, Kevin Love, Jarrett Allen and Jeremy Lamb.
Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Thursday’s best NBA props focus on all four of today’s nine contests:
- Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte Hornets — 7 p.m. ET
- Brooklyn Nets vs. New York Knicks — 7:30 p.m. ET
- New Orleans Pelicans vs. Sacramento Kings — 8 p.m. ET
- Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Cleveland Cavaliers — 8 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
Hornets SG Jeremy Lamb
The Pick: Over 3.5 rebounds (-114)
Lamb managed just two rebounds on opening night, but he’s historically been one of the best rebounding guards in basketball. He averaged 6.9 rebounds per 36 minutes over the past four seasons, and he’s currently projected for 26 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models.
That should give him a good enough chance to go over this prop against the Orlando Magic, who had the third-lowest rebound rate in the league last season.
This is one of my favorite props of the day, and I’d play it up to -150
Nets C Jarrett Allen
The Pick: Over seven rebounds (-114)
Allen made the highlight reel Wednesday night with monster block on Blake Griffin, but the fact that he played more than 30 minutes is the bigger factor for his value in the prop market.
He averaged 5.4 rebounds per game last season, but that was in just 20 minutes per game. If he continues to play close to 30 minutes per night, he should see his rebounding numbers soar in his second season.
Allen is a promising young big man, so it’d be in the Nets’ best interest to get him as much playing time as possible. I think this bet looks like a value up to -150.
Pelicans PF Nikola Mirotic
The Pick: Over 16 points (-114)
The Pelicans are in one of the best offensive spots of the day against the Sacramento Kings. The Kings ranked 27th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Pelicans’ implied team total of 121.25 points is the top mark on today’s slate.
Mirotic was highly involved in the first game of the season, posting a usage rate of 30.1% and playing just under 30 minutes. He averaged 20.7 per 36 minutes last season, so he should have a good chance at hitting this number if he continues to play big minutes for the Pelicans.
The Pels played at the fastest pace in the league last season, so I like their chances of scoring a bunch of points tonight. I’d play this up to -140.
Cavs PF Kevin Love
The Pick: Under 10.5 rebounds (-114)
Love is primed for a bigger season this year with LeBron James now playing in Los Angeles, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to gobble up rebounds like he used to.
Tristan Thompson played 27 minutes in the Cavs’ first game this season, and his presence on the court is going to cap Love’s rebounding upside. Larry Nance Jr. is also probable to make his return, so Love will likely spend the majority of his time playing next to another big man.
Love is still one of the best rebounders in the league — he ranked 12th in rebound rate last season — so this prop definitely has some risk. I wouldn’t feel comfortable paying more than -130.