We have another excellent slate on tap in the NBA today, and the prop market is full of value waiting to be exploited.
Our Action Network staff has combed through the matchups, rotations, and defensive schemes to find the best angles on the board.
Continue below for our NBA player props for Wednesday, November 11.
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NBA Player Props for Wednesday, November 11
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
| 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Wizards vs. Pacers
AJ Dybantsa Over 17.5 Points
By Joe Dellera
AJ Dybantsa is currently averaging 16.7 points per game, and outside of two relatively quiet outings against the Hawks, he has been crushing this number, cashing the over in five of his seven games.
The most encouraging aspect of his profile right now is the high volume of minutes he is logging. We just watched him play 37 minutes in his last game against Detroit, where he dropped 21 points, and prior to that, he logged 31 minutes against a tough Oklahoma City defense and finished with 19 points.
The sportsbooks only bumped his line up by a single point following the Detroit performance, which feels like a mispricing considering he closed with a 17.5-point prop line against OKC.
The situational matchup against Indiana is also favorable for his specific skill set. The Pacers play at a blistering pace, which naturally inflates the total number of possessions and scoring opportunities.
More importantly, Indiana’s defense—which currently ranks an abysmal 20th overall—does not tend to over-help on drives. We just saw Cooper Flagg go ballistic against them for 43 points because of that lack of rotational help.
Dybantsa is more than capable of creating his own shot, breaking down his primary defender, and getting into the paint for clean looks.
Ivica Zubac is the type of traditional big man who wants to be anchored in a set half-court defense; he struggles as a transition defender when the game gets scrambled.
With Zubac likely having his hands full trying to contain Anthony Davis inside anyway, Dybantsa should be able to find plenty of soft spots in transition and straight-line drives to the rim.
Pick: AJ Dybantsa Over 16.5 Points (-125)
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies
Jerami Grant Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
By Matt Moore
This is a prop I will consistently look to target based on Denver's specific defensive scheme. The Nuggets surrender a ton of corner three-pointers. It is a known structural flaw in their system; they simply do not execute great close-outs on the perimeter.
Because their defensive scheme is predicated on Nikola Jokic playing at the level of the screen, the back-line rotations are constantly forced into long, scrambling closeouts. As a result, Denver allows corner threes at one of the highest rates in the entire NBA, currently sitting third in the league in that category behind only Oklahoma City and Boston.
Despite playing at a relatively slow, methodical pace, the Nuggets still bleed these specific perimeter opportunities, and that is where Jerami Grant thrives.
Grant is currently shooting the basketball at an elite level, connecting on over 45 percent of his looks from deep and hitting an absurd 51 percent specifically from the corners. He averages roughly one made corner three per game, meaning we are already two-thirds of the way home on this prop just from his baseline corner production alone.
I also expect the Grizzlies to control the overall flow of this game. Denver is stepping into this matchup following an absolute nightmare of a travel schedule. They played in Mexico City, headed to the airport, got sent back to the hotel, slept for a few hours, returned to the airport, and finally landed in Houston at 5:00 a.m.
In a baffling decision, the Nuggets then proceeded to play all of their starters for 40 minutes the very next day—and still lost the game.
Between the heavy legs from the travel logistics and the Nuggets' inability to defend the corners, Grant should get a steady diet of clean looks from the outside tonight.
Pick: Jerami Grant Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-118)
Lakers vs. Bucks
Matisse Thybulle Over 5.5 Points
By Matt Moore
I initially wanted to back Matisse Thybulle to hit a few 3-pointers in tonight's game, but over 1.5 3-pointers (six points) is currently at +114, and his regular scoring prop gives you more outs.
The Bucks give up the fifth-most corner 3-pointers in the league; their pick-and-roll coverage gets absolutely lost and they routinely over-help for seemingly no reason.
Thybulle is shooting 44.8 percent from the corners and takes the most corner 3-point attempts for the Lakers.
The Bucks are playing on a back-to-back tonight, traveling back from the East Coast, and they should get smashed, but this is a lot of points for a Lakers team rolling on an East road trip, and I don’t like the obvious spots.
Based on in-season numbers only, though, I make the spread for this game Lakers -20, and I’m not exaggerating. The Bucks are truly awful.
Even if this game turns into a blowout, Thybulle should still get plenty of run.
I’ll pay the juice to get the possibility of a 3-pointer, a layup, and free throws for the over, but if you want to get greedy and play over 1.5 3PM, I don’t blame you.
Pick: Matisse Thybulle Over 5.5 Points (-114)
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers
Toumani Camara Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
By Matt Moore
I bet this same prop on Tuesday. I lost on Tuesday. I’m betting it again on Wednesday.
The Thunder give up the most corner 3-pointers in the league per game at 14.2 per game.
Toumani Camara takes the most corner 3-pointers of any Blazers player, 2.7 per game, and makes at a 41 percent clip.
Camara took seven 3s against the Thunder on Tuesday night, making just two of those attempts. The read was right; the result was not.
The Blazers probably won't keep him sidelined for the second half of the back-to-back tonight, so I’ll just run it back because the advantage and matchup are the same.
Pick: Toumani Camara Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-150)
