The NBA grind continues tonight, and our Action Network staff has you covered from every angle. We've pooled our top analysis and broken down the board to bring you our favorite spreads, totals, and player props for today's slate.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, picks, and predictions for Wednesday, November 11.
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NBA Best Bets for Wednesday, November 11
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Wizards vs. Pacers
Wizards +3.5
By Matt Moore
So, the Wizards’ numbers are impacted considerably by their 40-point blowout over OKC.
The Pacers are not OKC. The Pacers are a below .500 team who has struggled on both ends of the floor this season, before and after Tyrese Haliburton’s injury, and their defense is just as bad as their offense, so the Haliburton injury doesn’t really cut it.
The market power rating line (built off relative spreads against other teams) is Pacers -3.5. I make this line Pacers -1.7 using my preseason priors, but if we just used this season’s play-type data, I would have the Pacers as 4-point underdogs.
With the Wizards, I’m always concerned about three-point separation — Washington has the third-lowest 3-point rate in the league — but the Pacers are only 16th in 3-point rate and 24th in percentage.
If the Pacers have a good night from three, this bet is cooked. But the Wizards have a size and depth advantage, and they’ll be better in halfcourt.
The Wizards struggle in transition, which could doom them in a matchup against Indiana, but they also allow a below-league-average transition rate via Synergy Sports.
At its core, this is a bet on the notion that I think the Wizards and Pacers are relatively even teams, and homecourt does not account for 4.5 points of difference. I’ll grab the points with Washington tonight.
Pick: Wizards +3.5 (-110)
AJ Dybantsa Over 16.5 Points
By Joe Dellera
AJ Dybantsa is currently averaging 16.7 points per game, and outside of two relatively quiet outings against the Hawks, he has been crushing this number, cashing the over in five of his seven games.
The most encouraging aspect of his profile right now is the high volume of minutes he is logging. We just watched him play 37 minutes in his last game against Detroit, where he dropped 21 points, and prior to that, he logged 31 minutes against a tough Oklahoma City defense and finished with 19 points.
The sportsbooks only bumped his line up by a single point following the Detroit performance, which feels like a mispricing considering he closed with a 17.5-point prop line against OKC.
The situational matchup against Indiana is also favorable for his specific skill set. The Pacers play at a blistering pace, which naturally inflates the total number of possessions and scoring opportunities.
More importantly, Indiana’s defense—which currently ranks an abysmal 20th overall—does not tend to over-help on drives. We just saw Cooper Flagg go ballistic against them for 43 points because of that lack of rotational help.
Dybantsa is more than capable of creating his own shot, breaking down his primary defender, and getting into the paint for clean looks.
Ivica Zubac is the type of traditional big man who wants to be anchored in a set half-court defense; he struggles as a transition defender when the game gets scrambled.
With Zubac likely having his hands full trying to contain Anthony Davis inside anyway, Dybantsa should be able to find plenty of soft spots in transition and straight-line drives to the rim.
Pick: AJ Dybantsa Over 16.5 Points (-125)
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Cavaliers vs. Knicks
Knicks -4.5
We have two very different vibes heading into tonight. The Knicks, who started 0-3, are back to their dominant ways following last night's 117-85 win over the lowly Bucks, where the team was able to play 14 guys and award nobody more than 30 minutes.
The Cavaliers, meanwhile, were humiliated on Monday, losing at home to the Hornets, who were without Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Moussa Diabate and Grant Williams, while also limiting injury-riddled Coby White to just 20 minutes. Cleveland lost 124-112 and entered the fourth quarter trailing by 27 points.
These two teams also just played each other this past weekend, where the Knicks won 109-97 in Cleveland, who were on the second night of a back-to-back. The Knicks are in a back-to-back spot this time, although they're at home.
The Knicks being on the second of a back-to-back doesn't worry me, given that they handled Milwaukee with ease, which is what defending champions are supposed to do against arguably the worst team in the Eastern Conference.
Do you really want to back Cleveland here? Do you? Yes, the Cavs are in an obvious bounce-back spot against a team on the second night of a back-to-back, but they also haven't beaten New York since February, and that's including last week and four playoff games from the spring.
I'm more than willing to be wrong in backing the Knicks here, who are in better form, more trustworthy at home and have owned the Cavs for the last six months.
Pick: Knicks -4.5 (-110)
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Nuggets vs. Grizzlies
Grizzlies +4.5
By Matt Moore
The Nuggets just haven’t done anything to prove they deserve this kind of respect here. This line originally opened +4.5 and it has already fallen to +3.5.
Denver’s wins this season have come against the Pelicans twice, the Suns, the Raptors without Kawhi Leonard, and the Pacers.
That’s it. They’ve lost to every team over .500 they’ve faced, and Memphis is over .500.
Memphis presents all the same problems that Denver struggles with: a quick, crafty scoring guard in Ty Jerome. A strong, dominant interior presence who controls the glass in Zach Edey. Spacing. Athleticism. Speed.
I make this line Grizzlies +2.3.
The Nuggets are coming off a loss to Houston where their sleep schedule was messed up after travel delays over the weekend. They likely still haven’t adjusted.
Denver is a good team, but Memphis has been better so far, and if we flip this 4.5 points for homecourt — being light on Denver’s altitude advantage — this would be Nuggets -7.5? Does that sound right?
No way. I’ll take Memphis and the points.
Pick: Grizzlies +4.5 (-118)
Nikola Jokic Over 11.5 Rebounds
By Joe Dellera
I firmly believe rebounding is largely an effort statistic, and in these weird, grueling rest-disadvantage spots—like Denver coming off their brutal international travel and subsequent back-to-back—Nikola Jokic is the type of superstar who steps up, puts the team on his back, and asserts his physical dominance to lead by example.
We have seen Jokic’s rebounding numbers steadily trending up after a slightly wonky start to the year where he logged a handful of seven-rebound games. Over his last few outings, he has posted totals of 10, 13, and 16 rebounds, proving his motor on the glass is fully revved up.
The matchup against Memphis also presents a nice pace-up opportunity that should generate plenty of rebounding chances. If you look at comparable centers who have recently faced the Grizzlies, Domantas Sabonis cleared his elevated 13.5-rebound line in two separate games, pulling down 14 and 15 boards.
Jokic has historically dominated Memphis on the glass over the last couple of seasons, logging games of 14, 15, and 16 rebounds while consistently seeing upwards of 20 rebounding chances per contest.
From a personnel standpoint, the Grizzlies' frontcourt rotation actually plays perfectly into Jokic's hands tonight. Zach Edey should be in the mix, and because Edey doesn't stretch the floor offensively, Jokic gets to anchor himself in the paint and corral misses — and with Quentin Post officially ruled out and Isaiah Stewart dealing with a questionable tag, Memphis might be forced into some small-ball looks.
If Jokic finds himself battling undersized backups during his primary first and third-quarter rotations, he is going to crush them on the glass. The volume of opportunities should be there.
I'll back Jokic to grab over 11.5 rebounds tonight.
Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 11.5 Rebounds (-120)
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Nets vs. Pelicans
Nets +4.5
By Matt Moore
If you’re not willing to back the Nets on the road as a less-than-two-possession underdog, are you even really alive?
The market power-rated line on this game is only Pelicans -3.1, which sounds a lot closer to correct.
I like the Pelicans; I think some things are working, and I believe they’ll be better than the Nets by more than this number by season’s end.
But, the Pelicans probably aren't good enough to be favored by more than a possession over anyone in the league who isn’t Chicago or Sacramento.
The Nets are surprisingly decent at protecting the rim, but they give up a lot of threes. The Pelicans, however, are dead last in three-point rate and 26th in percentage.
The Pelicans don’t take the threes that the Nets will give them, and they don’t make them when they do take them. New Orleans wants to attack the rim where Brooklyn is actually good at defending.
Transition and turnovers are a problem; the Nets are 27th in turnover rate and the Pelicans are third in fastbreak points per 100 possessions. But I think Michael Porter Jr. and Julius Randle will be able to create enough offense to keep the Nets within striking distance.
The Nets just got clobbered by the Mavericks by over 30 points. Underdogs coming off a loss by more than 20 points are 12-9 ATS this season.
Pick: Nets +4.5 (-110)
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Spurs vs. Bulls
Victor Wembanyama Over 7.5 First Quarter Points
By Joe Dellera
I love isolating these first-quarter star props because they are significantly less volatile, meaning the lines stay actionable much longer before the market corrects them.
Victor Wembanyama has been an absolute force in the opening frame this season, currently averaging 8.9 first-quarter points while playing a consolidated rotation of roughly six to nine minutes. Over his last few games, the Spurs have consistently kept him on the floor closer to that crucial eight-to-nine-minute mark before his first rest.
What makes this prop so enticing right now is Wembanyama’s noticeable shift in aggression. He has stopped relying heavily on the three-point shot—which is a look I despise for him anyway—and has essentially doubled his dunk rate. By relentlessly attacking the rim and finishing through contact, he is generating a reliable floor of points and drawing plenty of early fouls.
Wemby has eviscerated teams that lack a legitimate interior anchor; over his last four matchups against the Suns, Trail Blazers, Kings, and Mavericks, he has erupted for 14, 8, 12, and 15 points in the first quarter alone.
Tonight, he gets a dream scenario against a Bulls team that plays at the fastest pace in the entire NBA while deploying an abysmal defense.
The Bulls are terrible at defending the pick-and-roll roll man, they bleed free-throw attempts, they offer very little resistance in transition, and they are awful at stopping offensive put-backs.
Every single one of those defensive leaks plays directly into Wembanyama's strengths.
My biggest concern with taking his full-game props is the blowout risk, as the Spurs have routinely blown the doors off inferior teams, potentially capping his fourth-quarter minutes.
However, Wembanyama is clearly motivated to make a statement for his MVP campaign, and he has already cleared this 7.5 line in 8 of his 11 games.
With three lob threats on the floor in San Antonio's new three-guard lineup, he should get plenty of easy finishes at the rim right from the opening tip.
Pick: Victor Wembanyama Over 7.5 First Quarter Points (-115)
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Lakers vs. Bucks
Matisse Thybulle Over 5.5 Points
By Matt Moore
I initially wanted to back Matisse Thybulle to hit a few three-pointers in tonight's game, but over 1.5 three-pointers (six points) is currently at +114, and his regular scoring prop gives you more outs.
The Bucks give up the fifth-most corner three-pointers in the league; their pick-and-roll coverage gets absolutely lost and they routinely over-help for seemingly no reason.
Thybulle is shooting 44.8 percent from the corners and takes the most corner three-point attempts for the Lakers.
The Bucks are playing on a back-to-back tonight, traveling back from the East Coast, and they should get smashed, but this is a lot of points for a Lakers team rolling on an East road trip, and I don’t like the obvious spots.
Based on in-season numbers only, though, I make the spread for this game Lakers -20, and I’m not exaggerating. The Bucks are truly awful. Even if this game turns into a blowout, Thybulle should still get plenty of run.
I’ll pay the juice to get the possibility of a three-pointer, a layup, and free throws for the over, but if you want to get greedy and play over 1.5 3PM, I don’t blame you.
Pick: Matisse Thybulle Over 5.5 Points (-114)
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Warriors vs. Rockets
Rockets -5.5
By Matt Moore
I will cop to this particular bet being boosted by a certain sense of stubbornness. The Warriors are a team I was down on in preseason, and the Rockets are a team I was high on. So, my confirmation bias is screaming at this game right now, where Houston is a less-than-two-possession favorite over Golden State.
But also, Golden State can’t keep getting away with this! The Warriors’ surprise player is rookie Yaxel Lendenborg, who the team is 20 points better without this season in on/off splits.
The Warriors are a small-ball team dominating offensive rebounding. They are living and dying by the 37-year-old touched-by-the-basketball-gods shooter and some insane defensive scheming.
The Warriors are good, and this is an opportunity to really stake their claim to being a potential playoff team.
I just think Houston’s better by margin. I make this line Rockets-9.6 based on preseason power rating, and Houston’s early performance has been much more sound than people realize. The Rockets have had a harder schedule and held a stronger point differential after it.
The Warriors have consistently caught teams in bad spots, like the Wolves in their first game without Anthony Edwards and the Heat on a back-to-back.
Houston is down two centers, which matters on the rebounding side, but the Rockets still have so many athletes who can hit the glass. Plus, Brandon Williams is out for the Warriors, and he’s given them good minutes.
I gave this out as a one-star play on the Buckets podcast because I know I’m walking into a trap here. But Houston has been the better team, and been better enough to be favored by more than this at home.
Pick: Rockets -5.5 (-105)
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Thunder vs. Trail Blazers
Toumani Camara Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
By Matt Moore
I bet this same prop on Tuesday. I lost on Tuesday. I’m betting it again on Wednesday.
The Thunder give up the most corner three-pointers in the league per game at 14.2 per game.
Toumani Camara takes the most corner three-pointers of any Blazers player, 2.7 per game, and makes them at a 41 percent clip.
Camara took seven threes against the Thunder on Tuesday night, making just two of those attempts. The read was right; the result was not.
The Blazers probably won't keep him sidelined for the second half of the back-to-back tonight, so I’ll just run it back because the advantage and matchup are the same.
Pick: Toumani Camara Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-150)
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