The Washington Wizards (4-7) and Indiana Pacers (3-8) will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The game will be broadcast live on MNMT.
The Pacers are 3.5-point favorites over the Wizards on the spread, with the over/under set at 226.5 total points. The Pacers are -162 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Wizards are listed as +136 underdogs to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Wizards vs. Pacers predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, November 11.
Wizards vs Pacers Prediction
- Wizards vs Pacers pick: Wizards +3.5 (-110)
My Wizards vs. Pacers best bet is Washington to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
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Wizards vs Pacers Odds
- Wizards vs Pacers spread: Wizards +3.5 (-110), Pacers -3.5 (-110)
- Wizards vs Pacers over/under: 226.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Wizards vs Pacers moneyline: Wizards +136, Pacers -162
Wizards vs Pacers NBA Preview
Washington Wizards Betting Preview
When evaluating the Washington Wizards, their success or failure in a given matchup almost entirely depends on the math game.
When the Wizards face high-volume three-point shooting teams, they get destroyed because they simply do not take enough threes to keep pace. However, when that specific threat is removed from the equation, they possess a consistent ability to hang around and keep games competitive.
From a personnel standpoint, I love the size and physicality the Wizards bring to this specific matchup. With Anthony Davis anchoring the interior, Washington has a distinct physical advantage.
The Wizards are also taking care of the basketball at a respectable rate, currently sitting ninth in the league in their own turnover percentage.
They have dropped some tough games recently, but the Wizards have remained competitive against physical teams because of that interior presence.
Indiana Pacers Betting Preview
I don't know if you have noticed this, but the Indiana Pacers are not very good right now. They have genuinely struggled to find their footing.
While their overall offensive rating currently sits at ninth, Indiana's underlying shooting metrics paint a much more concerning picture.
The Pacers are just 15th in three-point attempt rate, and they are a dismal 24th in three-point percentage, connecting on just 33.5 percent of their looks from deep.
Three-point percentage is always variant and largely luck-induced, but when you aren't generating a high volume of attempts to offset the misses, it becomes a structural problem.
Scoring is significantly down across the league this season, and turnovers have increased across all play types—especially in transition. The Pacers play a heavy transition style, making them susceptible to this league-wide turnover spike.
Defensively, they offer very little point of resistance, ranking 20th in overall defense and 21st in opponent turnover percentage. Even with Ivica Zubac and Pascal Siakam in the frontcourt, this team consistently looks and feels undersized on the floor.
Wizards vs Pacers Pick, Betting Analysis
Washington matches up really well here because Indiana does not shoot the three well enough to mathematically run them off the floor.
I actually make this line Pacers -3.5 based on my standard power ratings. However, if you strictly isolate the in-season numbers—which I hesitate to rely on due to the small sample size—my model actually flips this entire game and prices it at Pacers +3.8.
That is how much better the Wizards have been from a structural and strength-of-schedule standpoint. I'll take the Wizards +3.5 tonight.
Pick: Wizards +3.5 (-110)
