We have an excellent slate of NBA games in front of us tonight, and I've been crunching the numbers to find the best spots on the board. From sides and totals to specific matchup angles, I've locked in my favorite plays for the evening.
Let's get into my NBA predictions for Wednesday, November 11.
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NBA Predictions for Wednesday, November 11
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Wizards vs. Pacers
Wizards +3.5
The Wizards’ numbers are impacted considerably by their 40-point blowout over OKC.
The Pacers are not OKC. The Pacers are a below .500 team who has struggled on both ends of the floor this season, before and after Tyrese Haliburton’s injury, and their defense is just as bad as their offense, so the Haliburton injury doesn’t really cut it.
The market power rating line (built off relative spreads against other teams) is Pacers -3.5. I make this line Pacers -1.7 using my preseason priors, but if we just used this season’s play-type data, I would have the Pacers as 4-point underdogs.
With the Wizards, I’m always concerned about three-point separation — Washington has the third-lowest 3-point rate in the league — but the Pacers are only 16th in 3-point rate and 24th in percentage.
If the Pacers have a good night from three-point range, this bet is cooked. But the Wizards have a size and depth advantage, and they’ll be better in the halfcourt.
The Wizards struggle in transition, which could doom them in a matchup against Indiana, but they also allow a below-league-average transition rate via Synergy Sports.
At its core, this is a bet on the notion that I believe the Wizards and Pacers are relatively even teams, and homecourt does not account for 4.5 points of difference.
I’ll grab the points with Washington tonight.
Pick: Wizards +3.5 (-115)
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Nets vs. Pelicans
Nets +4.5
If you’re not willing to back the Nets on the road as a less-than-two-possession underdog, are you even really alive?
The market power-rated line on this game is only Pelicans -3.1, which sounds a lot closer to correct.
I like the Pelicans; I think some things are working, and I believe they’ll be better than the Nets by more than this number by the end of the season. But the Pelicans probably aren't good enough to be favored by more than a possession over anyone in the league who isn’t Chicago or Sacramento.
The Nets are surprisingly decent at protecting the rim, but they give up a lot of threes. The Pelicans, however, are dead last in three-point rate and 26th in percentage.
The Pelicans don’t take the threes that the Nets will give them, and they don’t make them when they do take them. New Orleans wants to attack the rim where Brooklyn is actually good at defending.
Transition and turnovers are a problem; the Nets are 27th in turnover rate and the Pelicans are third in fast-break points per 100 possessions. But I think Michael Porter Jr. and Julius Randle will be able to create enough offense to keep the Nets within striking distance.
The Nets just got clobbered by the Mavericks by over 30 points. Underdogs coming off a loss by more than 20 points are 12-9 ATS this season.
Pick: Nets +4.5 (-110)
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Lakers vs. Bucks
Matisse Thybulle Over 5.5 Points
I initially wanted to back Matisse Thybulle to hit a few three-pointers in tonight's game, but over 1.5 three-pointers (six points) is currently at +114, and his regular scoring prop gives you more outs.
The Bucks give up the fifth-most corner three-pointers in the league; their pick-and-roll coverage gets lost and they routinely over-help for seemingly no reason.
Thybulle is shooting 44.8 percent from the corners and takes the most corner three-point attempts for the Lakers.
The Bucks are playing on a back-to-back tonight, traveling back from the East Coast, and they should get smashed, but this is a lot of points for a Lakers team rolling on an East road trip, and I don’t like the obvious spots.
Based on in-season numbers only, though, I make the spread for this game Lakers -20, and I’m not exaggerating. The Bucks are truly awful. Even if this game turns into a blowout, Thybulle should still get plenty of run.
I’ll pay the juice to get the possibility of a three-pointer, a layup, and free throws for the over, but if you want to get greedy and play over 1.5 three-pointers, I don’t blame you.
Pick: Matisse Thybulle Over 5.5 Points (-114)
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Nuggets vs. Grizzlies
Grizzlies +4.5
The Nuggets just haven’t done anything to prove they deserve this kind of respect here. This line originally opened +4.5 and it has already fallen to +3.5.
Denver’s wins this season have come against the Pelicans twice, the Suns, the Raptors without Kawhi Leonard, and the Pacers. That’s it. They’ve lost to every team over .500 they’ve faced, and Memphis is over .500.
Memphis presents all the same problems that Denver struggles with: a quick, crafty scoring guard in Ty Jerome. A strong, dominant interior presence who controls the glass in Zach Edey. Spacing. Athleticism. Speed.
I make this line Grizzlies +2.3. The Nuggets are coming off a loss to Houston where their sleep schedule was messed up after travel delays over the weekend. They likely still haven’t adjusted.
Denver is a good team, but Memphis has been better so far, and if we flip this 4.5 points for homecourt — being light on Denver’s altitude advantage — this would be Nuggets -7.5? Does that sound right?
No way. I’ll take Memphis and the points.
Pick: Grizzlies +4.5 (-118)
Jerami Grant Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
This is a prop I will consistently look to target based on Denver's specific defensive scheme. The Nuggets surrender a ton of corner three-pointers. It is a known structural flaw in their system; they simply do not execute great close-outs on the perimeter.
Because their defensive scheme is predicated on Nikola Jokic playing at the level of the screen, the back-line rotations are constantly forced into long, scrambling closeouts. As a result, Denver allows corner threes at one of the highest rates in the entire NBA, currently sitting third in the league in that category behind only Oklahoma City and Boston.
Despite playing at a relatively slow, methodical pace, the Nuggets still bleed these specific perimeter opportunities, and that is where Jerami Grant thrives.
Grant is currently shooting the basketball at an elite level, connecting on over 45 percent of his looks from deep and hitting an absurd 51 percent specifically from the corners. He averages roughly one made corner three per game, meaning we are already two-thirds of the way home on this prop just from his baseline corner production alone.
I also expect the Grizzlies to control the overall flow of this game. Denver is stepping into this matchup following an absolute nightmare of a travel schedule. They played in Mexico City, headed to the airport, got sent back to the hotel, slept for a few hours, returned to the airport, and finally landed in Houston at 5:00 a.m.
In a baffling decision, the Nuggets then proceeded to play all of their starters for 40 minutes the very next day—and still lost the game.
Between the heavy legs from the travel logistics and the Nuggets' inability to defend the corners, Grant should get a steady diet of clean looks from the outside tonight.
Pick: Jerami Grant Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-118)
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Warriors vs. Rockets
Rockets -5.5
I will cop to this particular bet being boosted by a certain sense of stubbornness. The Warriors are a team I was down on in preseason, and the Rockets are a team I was high on. So, my confirmation bias is screaming at this game right now, where Houston is a less-than-two-possession favorite over Golden State.
But also, Golden State can’t keep getting away with this! The Warriors’ surprise player is rookie Yaxel Lendenborg, who the team is 20 points better without this season in on/off splits.
The Warriors are a small-ball team dominating offensive rebounding. They are living and dying by the 37-year-old touched-by-the-basketball-gods shooter and some insane defensive scheming.
The Warriors are good, and this is an opportunity to really stake their claim to being a potential playoff team. However, I just think Houston is better by a good margin.
I make this line Rockets-9.6 based on preseason power rating, and Houston’s early performance has been much more sound than people realize. The Rockets have had a harder schedule and held a stronger point differential after it.
The Warriors have consistently caught teams in bad spots, like the Wolves in their first game without Anthony Edwards and the Heat on a back-to-back.
Houston is down two centers, which matters on the rebounding side, but the Rockets still have so many athletes who can hit the glass. Plus, Brandon Williams is out for the Warriors, and he’s given them good minutes.
I gave this out as a one-star play on the Buckets podcast because I know I’m walking into a trap here. But Houston has been the better team, and been better enough to be favored by more than this at home.
Pick: Rockets -5.5 (-105)
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Thunder vs. Trail Blazers
Toumani Camara Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
I bet this same prop on Tuesday. I lost on Tuesday. I’m betting it again on Wednesday.
The Thunder give up the most corner three-pointers in the league per game at 14.2 per game.
Toumani Camara takes the most corner three-pointers of any Blazers player, 2.7 per game, and makes them at a 41 percent clip.
Camara took seven threes against the Thunder on Tuesday night, making just two of those attempts. The read was right; the result was not.
The Blazers probably won't keep him sidelined for the second half of the back-to-back tonight, so I’ll just run it back because the advantage and matchup are the same here.
Pick: Toumani Camara Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-150)
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