Monday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Stephen Curry Points, More

Monday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Stephen Curry Points, More article feature image

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry

  • Monday's 11-game slate features four NBA player props offering value.
  • This piece will focus on Pistons PG Reggie Jackson, Pacers PG Darren Collison, Lakers F Kyle Kuzma and Warriors PG Stephen Curry.

Monday’s best NBA player props focus on four of the slate’s 11 games:

  • Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers: 7 p.m. ET
  • Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers: 7 p.m. ET
  • Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers: 10:30 p.m. ET on NBATV
  • Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET

As a reminder, you can dig deeper on these and many other prop bets by using our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool. It leverages our NBA projections against five of the most popular online sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of one to 10.

Let’s dive right in.

Pistons PG Reggie Jackson

The Pick: Over 4.5 assists (-114)

The Pistons will be without Blake Griffin on Monday, which means that more of the offense should run through Jackson.

Jackson should obviously see a few extra shot attempts, but don’t sleep on his increased assist potential, either: He’s increased his assist rate by +7.4% with Griffin off the floor this season. The result is an average of 7.3 assists per 36 minutes, which would put him comfortably over the current line of 4.5. The 76ers also represent a nice matchup given that they’ve played at the seventh-fastest pace this season.

We currently have Jackson projected for 32 minutes in our Models, and the over has a Bet Quality of 10 in the Player Props Tool. I’d play it up to -175.

Pacers PG Darren Collison

The Pick: Over 12 points (+105)

Collison is not exactly a scoring machine, but he has assumed a larger offensive burden with Victor Oladipo out of the lineup recently. Collison has scored at least 12 points in two of his past three games, with the exception of a blowout win in which he played just 26 minutes.

Collison has a nice matchup against the Wizards, who rank eighth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency. The Pacers’ implied team total of 111 points is also five points higher than their season average (106.0).

I like the idea of getting this prop at better than even money, but it starts to lose value around -125.

Lakers F Kyle Kuzma

The Pick: Over 19 points (-105)

Kuzma has seen a nice uptick in playing time recently and has scored at least 20 points in each of his past four games. He’s also benefited from the injury to Brandon Ingram: Kuzma has increased his usage rate by +1.4% in six games without Ingram this season and averaged 23 points in those contests, including 20 in a difficult matchup against the Grizzlies in his most recent outing.

There should be plenty of offense in this matchup against the Heat: Both teams rank inside the top 10 for pace this season, and the total has increased by 3.5 points since opening.

Kuzma can flat out score the basketball, so I like his prospects of going over 19 points. I’d play this up to -150 and would play it at 19.5 as well.

Warriors PG Stephen Curry

The Pick: Over 26.5 points (-125)

The Warriors are in a really interesting spot against the Timberwolves, who have been among the league’s best defensive teams since acquiring Robert Covington, allowing just 100.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. But that could actually work as a positive for Curry on Wednesday.

Covington will likely spend the majority of his time guarding Kevin Durant, which could give Curry a few additional shot attempts. The Warriors are also still implied for a slate-best 119.5 points, so Vegas isn’t doubting their ability to score despite the Timberwolves’ recent defensive numbers.

This is my least confident prop of the day, but sweating a Curry over is one of the best sweats in sports. While there’s not a ton of wiggle room here, I still think we can bet it profitably at the current number.

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