Warriors vs. Mavericks Series Odds: Golden State Looking to Close Out Dallas at Home

Warriors vs. Mavericks Series Odds: Golden State Looking to Close Out Dallas at Home article feature image

Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors.

Warriors vs. Mavericks Series Odds

Series Winner-3000+1400
Win in 5-290+2800
Win in 6+500+1500
Win in 7+700+1400
Odds as of Tuesday and via FanDuel.

After Game 4

The Mavericks are officially on the board in the Western Conference Finals after handling business and avoiding the sweep at home in Game 4.

Luka Doncic nearly recorded a triple-double (30 points, 14 rebounds and nine assists), but it was Dorian Finney-Smith's 23-point outing and Reggie Bullock's six 3s that proved to be the difference for Dallas.

The series will now shift back to the Bay Area, where the Warriors will look to shoot a bit better from downtown in order to advance to the NBA Finals.

After Game 3

The Warriors took a commanding 3-0 series lead with a 109-100 victory in Dallas. The Warriors led by one at halftime and then established a bit of breathing room as they outscored Dallas, 30-21, in the third quarter. Luka Doncic finished with 40 points on 11-of-23 shooting, but the Mavericks, as a team, shot just 13-for-45 (28.9%) from beyond the arc. Stephen Curry led the Warriors with 31 points and Andrew Wiggins added 27. The Warriors are slight underdogs in Game 4, but moved from -800 to -10000 to win the series. The Mavericks went from +700 to +3100 to advance to the NBA Finals.

After Game 2

The Mavericks came out strong in Game 2, sinking 15 threes in the first half and leading by as much as 19 at one point. However, despite 42 points from Luka Doncic, Dallas was unable to hold on and lost 126-117. The Warriors outscored the Mavericks 68-45 in the second half. Stephen Curry led the Warriors with 32 points, but Kevon Looney also came up huge and finished with 21 points and 12 rebounds. A 2-0 deficit, while daunting, isn't foreign territory for Dallas as the Mavericks were down 2-0 last round against the Suns. The Mavericks went from +360 to +800 to win the series, while the Warriors moved from -460 to -700.

After Game 1

The Warriors cruised to a 112-87 victory in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Splash Brothers — Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson — got off to a slow start, but picked things up as the Warriors put the game away in the third quarter.

Curry finished with 21 points and Thompson had 15. Andrew Wiggins also came up big for Golden State as he finished with 19 points and played solid defense. All five Warriors' starters scored in double digits. Golden State was also able to limit Luka Doncic to just 20 points on 6-of-18 (3-of-10 from deep) shooting.

The Warriors were already heavy favorites to win the series, but the win moved the line from -250 to -460. The Mavericks went from +200 to +360.

Golden State Warriors

It wasn't exactly pretty for the Warriors at every turn in Round 2 — a 39-point loss on the road isn't ideal — but they managed to pull through against the Memphis Grizzlies to move onto the Western Conference finals for the first time since 2019.

The Warriors and Grizzlies played at the fastest Pace (102.42 possessions) of any series in Round 2 and the Warriors are fourth overall in Pace (99.82) in the playoffs. That will create an interesting contrast with the Mavericks who play at a much slower Pace.

Golden State also has some wounded Warriors — Andre Iguodala, Gary Payton II and Otto Porter Jr. — will will impact their rotations. Head coach Steve Kerr was not optimistic about Payton returning after his elbow injury, Iguodala will be re-evaluated for his ongoing disc injury Thursday and Porter has chance to come off the bench for Game 1.

Despite the injuries, Caesars has the Warriors listed as -250 favorites in the series (about 68% implied odds) and they are also +135 to win the NBA title.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks shocked many, including the Phoenix Suns, with their dominant Game 7 win. Led by the leading scorer in the postseason, Luka Doncic, the Mavericks pulled off a 33-point rout on the road to beat the best team in the NBA. Their offense has come alive to match their stifling defense since the start of Round 2 — they led all teams in the conference semis in Offensive Rating (114.3) and Effective Field Goal Percentage (55.7%).

Dallas' main injury concern was Doncic entering the playoffs and he's been on fire despite missing the first two games of the series. Even with Doncic's heroics, oddsmakers have the Mavericks as big underdogs entering this series. Their odds to win the series in seven games (+800), aren't too far off from the Warriors' odds to sweep (+625).

Mavericks vs. Warriors Game 5 Odds

Mavericks Odds+7.5
Warriors Odds-7.5
Moneyline+265 / -330
Time9 p.m. ET
Odds as of Tuesday and via FanDuel.

Warriors vs. Mavericks Conference Finals Schedule

Game 1: Mavericks 87, Warriors 112
Game 2: Mavericks 117, Warriors 126
Game 3: Warriors 109, Mavericks 100
Game 4:Mavericks 119, Warriors 109
Game 6: Saturday May 26 | 9 p.m. ET on TNT (If Nec.)
Game 7: Monday May 30 | 8 p.m. ET on TNT (If Nec.)

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Doug Ziefel
Jun 25, 2024 UTC