The NBA returns Tuesday and that means sides, totals, moneylines, props, alternate lines, and an unbelievably annoying series of way too vague injury updates every single day! It’s our time.
With new TV partners bringing actual coverage of the games, new stats on the way, and a fascinating rookie class, we are in for an incredible season.
To start, we have the reigning champs, the Oklahoma City Thunder, hosting former heir to the throne, Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets.
Oklahoma City is a heavy favorite at -7 but is it heavy enough?
In the late game, it’s NBA Classic Edition, as we get to see Warriors-Lakers for the 700th time. Only this time, no LeBron James for the Lakers, who is out with sciatica.
The Old Man Dubs and their Near Death Lineup look to get off to a good start on the road against Luka Doncic and company.
Enough chit chat, let’s get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Tuesday, October 21.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets: Tuesday, October 21
Rockets vs Thunder
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -115 | 228 -110o / -110u | +225 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -105 | 228 -110o / -110u | -280 |
Thunder -7
I project this line at Thunder -9.5 after the injury report ruled out Jalen Williams, Isaiah Joe, and Kenrich Williams.
The Rockets are without Dorian Finney-Smith and Jae’Sean Tate.
Some elements that got me here: Western Conference home favorites of more than four points in their opener are 11-6 in the last five seasons.
The way to think of this is that, while we’re in a parity era, the good teams are decidedly better, especially to start the season.
The Rockets took some money after Williams was ruled out, but we’ve tracked more action in our PRO tools on the Thunder leading into this game.
The biggest problem for the Rockets after the loss of Fred VanVleet to injury is turnovers. They’re very short on ball-handlers.
Amen Thompson hasn’t played full-time point guard in the league yet, and Reed Sheppard barely played last season.
The Rockets’ two-big lineups have been terrific, but they struggle with turnovers.
Do you know who you don’t want to have a turnover problem against? THE OKLAHOMA CITY “ALL-TIME DEFENSE BUILT ON RIPPING THE BALL OUT OF YOUR BARE HANDS” THUNDER.
In the two wins for the Rockets last season, Jalen Green had a +14.3 net rating, and the best net ratings of the starters across the five matchups.
The Thunder are a young team that sees nothing dramatic about winning the title. They basically shrugged at it last year. They have no frame of reference to know that banner night should be a big moment.
The Rockets are integrating a major new piece in Durant, and missing their calming influence and one of their most impactful players in Fred VanVleet. I’ll lay the points with OKC tonight.
Alperen Sengun Over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
All eyes are on Kevin Durant tonight, for obvious reasons.
However, Sengun has been the best player on the Rockets for two seasons and looked like he leveled up in Eurobasket.
Meanwhile, the Thunder have rebounding issues, even when they have their two-big lineup with Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren.
Sengun has hit 33 or more in six of his last eight matchups against the Thunder.
Sengun averaged more rebounds and assists without Jalen Green last year, and while Durant is a high-usage player, he’s more comfortable off-ball, which Sengun can benefit from.
I’m expecting a huge night from Sengun to start.
Over 227.5
Without Jalen Williams, the over started taking sharp money yesterday, moving up two points from the opening line of 225.5.
If part of my cap is that the Thunder will create turnovers against Houston, those will turn directly into easier points for Oklahoma City.
The over was 4-1 in games between the Rockets and Thunder last season.
Houston’s size in the two-big lineups could lead to more free throws.
The over hit at a 55% clip last season when OKC’s opponent averaged more free throws than them.
Rockets vs Thunder Best Bets
- Thunder -7
- Alperen Sengun Over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
- Over 227.5
Warriors vs Lakers
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 226 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 226 -110o / -110u | +125 |
Jimmy Butler Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists
Butler has gone over this line in 14 of his last 20 games for Golden State, and 20 of his last 30.
With no LeBron James, the Lakers lose someone who can cut off passing lanes. The absence of LeBron's basketball IQ and an athletic rebounding should open up more for Butler.
Butler doesn’t have to score much against the Lakers, and he’ll benefit from a weak Lakers' defense.
Lakers Moneyline (Lean)
I still make this game Lakers -1.5, even with LeBron out, thanks to the absence of Moses Moody and De’Anthony Melton.
The Lakers have questions, but they also have size and Luka Doncic.
I’m not expecting a terrific Lakers performance, but I do think it’s wrong for them to be home 'dogs to the Warriors in this spot.
So, I’ll play a small amount on the Lakers to win outright based on my power rating.
Warriors vs Lakers Best Bets
- Jimmy Butler Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists
- Lakers Moneyline (Lean)
