Wednesday’s Best NBA Props & Betting Picks: Can Nikola Jokic Grab 11 Rebounds?
Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Nikola Jokic
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Wednesday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from four of the slate’s 10 games:
- Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics 7 p.m. ET
- Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers: 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls: 8 p.m. ET
- Charlotte Hornets at Denver Nuggets: 9 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Odds as of Wednesday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Pistons PG Derrick Rose
THE PICK: Over 20.5 Points (-120) [In NJ, PA, IN or WV? Bet now at FanDuel]
What does Rose have to do to see his scoring prop increase? He’s scored at least 22 points in five of his past six games, and he’s attempted at least 21 shots in three of his past four games.
He’s dominated the basketball in games without Blake Griffin this season, seeing a team-high usage bump of +2.3%. Overall, Rose’s posted a usage rate of 33.5% in those contests, resulting in an average of 27.5 points per 36 minutes.
Rose is coming off at least 35.7 minutes in two of his past three games, so this prop is simply too low. I like the over on this prop up to -150.
Nets PG Kyrie Irving
THE PICK: Over 4.5 Assists (-130) [In NJ, PA, IN or WV? Bet now at FanDuel]
This line is crazy low for Irving. He’s averaged 7.2 assists per game this season, which represents a new career-high for him. He’s coming off 11 assists in his last game, and he’s handed out at least five assists in all but one game this season. The only exception was a game where he played just 19.8 minutes, and that was his first game back after an extended injury absence. He played 32.2 minutes in his last game, so he doesn’t appear to be on any sort of minute restriction.
I don’t get this line at all, and I’m willing to play it up to -175. This is the second leg of a back-to-back, but he should be able to hit the over even if he plays slightly fewer minutes than usual.
Wizards PG Isaiah Thomas
THE PICK: Under 10.5 Points (-110) [In NJ, PA, IN or WV? Bet now at FanDuel]
Thomas had a bit of a resurgence earlier this season, but his role with the Wizards is dwindling. He played under 20 minutes in his last game, and he’s scored nine points or fewer in seven of his past eight games. His current matchup vs. the Bulls is not ideal for scoring — they rank 11th in defensive efficiency — and he’s going to need a hot shooting night to hit the over give his current workload.
I’m definitely willing to fade Thomas at the moment, and I the under should be priced up higher. I like it up to -130.
Nuggets C Nikola Jokic
THE PICK: Over 10.5 Rebounds (+100) [In NJ, PA, IN or WV? Bet now at FanDuel]
Jokic has been up and down this season, which is what we’ve come to expect from him. That applies to his production on the glass as well, but he’s pulled down at least 12 boards in each of his past two games.
There are reasons for optimism with him today vs. the Hornets. They rank just 25th in rebound rate and 22nd in offensive efficiency, which is a good combination for a lot of opportunities on the defensive glass.
Betting on Jokic is always a scary proposition, but I like this prop at even money. It stops looking like a value at around -115.