NBA Expert Betting Picks (Wednesday, Jan. 15): Best Bets for Raptors vs. Thunder, Mavericks vs. Kings
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Doncic (77) of the Dallas Mavericks.
There are 10 games on Wednesday evening’s NBA schedule, and our experts are betting on these specific matchups:
- 8 p.m. ET: Toronto Raptors at Oklahoma City Thunder
- 10 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings
See which bets they’re making below.
Odds as of Wednesday and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Wob: Raptors at Thunder
- Spread: Thunder -1.5
- Over/Under: 214.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
There’s a good reason why this is one of the lowest totals on the board tonight. The Toronto Raptors enter tonight’s affair not only conceding the fourth-fewest points per game in the league, but currently stand as the NBA’s second-most efficient defense.
While Oklahoma City’s rankings are only 10th and 14th comparatively, the two teams’ offensive production and styles is the draw here. Toronto would prefer to get out and run after their steel curtain defense produces a turnover and OKC lives in the half court. They not only live in the half court, their point guard is a mid-range fiend.
Despite his resurgence this season, Chris Paul is going to have quite a difficult time getting those open 15-footers he loves with the Raptors haunting the interior. Regardless whether they go in or not, the Thunder’s winning streak has proven to us that they dictate the terms and pace which the game is played.
If it’s in the half court like we’re watching a playoff series, these teams will struggle to get to 100 points each let alone 214.5 total.
The PICK: Under 214.5
John Ewing: Mavericks at Kings
- Spread: Mavs -4.5
- Over/Under: 228
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
At the time of writing, a majority of tickets are on the Mavs-Kings under but the total has increased from 224.5 to 228. What gives?
Sharp action is responsible for the line movement. We know this because more than 75% of the dollars are on the over. This means that larger bets, likely from pros, expect tonight’s game to be high scoring.
Even though the total has increased it has still been profitable to follow sharp line movement when there is a great amount of dollars than tickets on the over.
A $100 bettor following this system would have returned a profit of $5,113 since 2015. Sharps don’t always win but being on the same side as the pros is a smart strategy.
The PICK: Over 228
Brandon Anderson: Mavericks at Kings
Remember when the Kings could have drafted Luka Doncic, but decided not to because they didn’t want to take away from what they were building with De’Aaron Fox? The Dallas Mavericks remember and they are grateful.
The Kings took Marvin Bagley instead, who is averaging 14.1 points and 6.8 rebounds for Sacramento. That’s a nice half for Doncic, who is putting up 28.9 points, 9.6 boards, and 8.8 assists at the ripe old age of 20. The Mavericks have taken a gigantic franchise leap forward under Doncic.
The Kings? Well, they’re still mostly the KANGZ. In a wide open West where they were expected to take a big step forward, the Kings have stumbled to an ugly 15-25 start. The Mavericks’ record is the inverse, safely in the playoff picture. Dallas is on the second game of a back-to-back, but only if you count last night’s scrimmage against Golden State as an actual game.
They’re actually better on the road than at home this season at 13-5, including 13-5 against the spread, and the Kings are 7-13 ATS at home. Keep it simple and take the better team.
The PICK: Mavs -4.5