Thursday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Draymond Green Points, More
Photo credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Draymond Green
- Thursday's five-game NBA slate features four player prop bets offering value
- This piece will focus on Rockets G Eric Gordon, Kings C Willie Cauley-Stein, Lakers G/F Brandon Ingram, and Warriors PF Draymond Green
Wednesday’s best NBA player props focus on three of the slate’s five games:
- Houston Rockets at Boston Celtics: 8 p.m. ET on TNT
- Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings: 10 p.m. ET
- Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET
As a reminder, you can dig deeper on these and many other prop bets by using our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool. It leverages our projections against five of the most popular online sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of one to 10.
Rockets G Eric Gordon
The Pick: Over 17.0 points (-114)
Gordon has been mired in a deep shooting slump for most of the season, making just 37.1% of his shots from the field and 30.1% of his shots from 3-point range.
That said, he’s getting up a massive volume of shots with Chris Paul out of the lineup — he’s attempted at least 17 in each of his past three games — so he doesn’t need to shoot much better to have a chance to hit the over on his current prop. He’s scored at least 17 points in each of those contests and has the potential to go well over if his jump shot starts falling.
Gordon has a difficult matchup vs. the Celtics, but this line is simply too low given his current usage rate. I like the over up to -160.
Kings C Willie-Cauley Stein
The Pick: Over 14.5 points (+100)
I bet the over on Cauley-Stein yesterday and lost, but I’m going back to the well tonight. He ended up playing reduced minutes because the Kings were getting blown out but still managed to score 11 points in 23 minutes.
I’m expecting him to return to his normal workload today — he’s currently projected for 32.5 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models — and he’s averaged 17.6 points per 36 minutes this season. This game vs. the Lakers should be one of the highest-scoring of the day: The over/under of 231.0 points is the top mark on the slate.
I like getting this bet at +100, but I’d still play it up to -135.
Lakers G/F Brandon Ingram
The Pick: Over 19.0 points (+120)
This line is definitely a little bit inflated — Ingram has averaged just 15.5 points per game this season — but getting the over at better than even money does make it a bit more palatable. Ingram also figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the absences of LeBron James and Rajon Rondo.
He’s seen a usage bump of +5.4% with both players off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 24.0 points per 36 minutes. He should have plenty of opportunities to score vs. the Kings, who have played at the second-fastest pace in the league this season.
Ingram has struggled to adjust to life with LeBron this season, so I think he’ll be extremely motivated to take advantage of the Lakers’ current injury situation. I love this bet at +120 but would play it up to -120 as well.
Warriors PF Draymond Green
The Pick: Over eight points (-114)
Betting the over on Green’s scoring ability is terrifying, but eight points is such a low bar to clear. He’s been much more involved offensively over the past three games, posting an average usage rate of 18.1%. He was limited to just four points on Christmas due to foul trouble, but scored 14 points in each of his two prior contests. I think this is a prime opportunity to buy low.
Green has made a concerted effort to score more recently, so I think this line is too low. I’d play the over up to -155.