Nets vs. Pacers Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions: Sharps Hammering the Over/Under

Nets at Pacers Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions

• Spread: Pacers -6.5
• Over/Under: 217.5
• Time: 7 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: League Pass

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The Pacers have struggled a bit recently, and Victor Oladipo hasn’t quite found his footing coming back from an extended injury absence.

Will they turn things around tonight at home? How are sharps betting this game? We break it all down below.

Betting Trends to Know

The Nets haven’t been great in this spot this year. They’re just 11-14 ATS as underdogs and an even worse 9-15 ATS on the road. The Pacers, meanwhile, are a respectable 19-16-3 ATS as favorites and 18-9 straight-up at home.

Nets vs. Pacers Sharp Report

The sharp play on this total has been about as obvious as they come — something that can be said about more than just this game tonight.

Sixty-four percent of bets have hit the over, which isn’t surprising given the public’s tendency to root for offense. A bit more surprising, maybe, is that the total has fallen despite the over’s popularity. After opening at 220.5, it’s down to 217.5 across the market.

Part of the reason is that the 36% of under tickets have generated 75% of actual money hitting the total. Obviously, that’s going to create a monetary liability, but perhaps more importantly, it tells us that the under is receiving much bigger bets — the ones more likely to come from sharps.

Three Sports Insights Bet Signals have confirmed three separate waves of smart money landing on the under (at 220.5, 220 and 219.5), helping pushing oddsmakers to the current total.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 220.5 to 217.5)

Moore: Indiana’s shot selection vs. a quality Nets defense

When I saw the line, Pacers was my gut reaction. They’ve lost five straight, but when you get in the weeds, it looks different.

The Knicks loss was whatever; you can’t really think they’re worse than the Knicks and just had one of those games. They lost to the Mavericks, who can outshoot any team. And then they lost both ends of a home-and-home with the Raptors, one after a furious Toronto comeback in Indy in which the Pacers got a brutal no-call on their final possession.

I told you on Saturday it was a good spot for the Pelicans, and they ran up a big number.

Now, they’re facing the Nets without Kyrie Irving — an offense that is a lot easier for them to corral and keep pace with. But the number is high. The Nets are 50% ATS this season without Irving; the Pacers as a home favorite are 12-11. There’s just not a lot of value at this number.

However, here’s where the matchup finds us an angle. The Nets are actually a top-10 defense but bad offensively. Most notably, the Nets allow the ninth-fewest points in the paint per 100 possessions.

The Nets are also 12th in mid-range defense, per Synergy Sports, and that’s where the Pacers generate most of their offense. The Nets are also eighth defending spot-up attempts, where the Pacers usually feast.

As a home favorite this season, the Pacers have averaged 111 points per game. The Pacers are bottom-10 in pace this season. The team total is all the way up at 112.5.

So while I think the spread is a stay-away and I don’t want to bank on the Nets offense, the Pacers’ total of 112.5 has value on the under.

THE PLAY: Pacers team total under 112.5

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.