Pelicans-Warriors Betting Guide: Will the Historically High Over/Under Hit?

Pelicans-Warriors Betting Guide: Will the Historically High Over/Under Hit? article feature image
Credit:

Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Curry

Betting Odds: New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors

  • Spread: Warriors -7
  • Over/Under: 241
  • Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN

>> All odds as of 5:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets


The Warriors put up more than 50 points in the first quarter against the excellent Denver Nuggets on Tuesday night and never looked back.

Can they keep their momentum on a back-to-back, or will the Pelicans cover?

Betting Trends to Know

Is it time we start talking about this?

This season, teams that are on a back-to-back and facing a team not playing on consecutive days are 69-93 (42.6%) against the spread, losing bettors 27.8 units. If the season ended today, it would be the second-least profitable year in this spot since 2004-05. (Bettors lost 42 units in this spot in 2009-10, going 166-201-5 ATS [45.2%].)

Over the past three seasons, the Warriors are 11-19 (36.7%) ATS in this spot, making them the league’s second-least profitable team ahead of only the Knicks.Evan Abrams

The Warriors scored 142 points in a rout of the Nuggets, making them one of three teams to top 140 points on Tuesday night.

Since 2005, there have been 94 teams to score 140 or more points in a game. The next time out, these teams scored on average 109.2 points and went 46-47-1 ATS.John Ewing


Mears: Why I’m Betting the Under Tonight

If you want to bet against the Warriors, you have to be patient. They’re such a public team that it will be profitable long-term to fade them — they’re just 19-25 ATS this season– but there will be games like Tuesday night when your bet just isn’t close.

Since 2004, there have been 222 instances in which a team has played at home after scoring at least 130 points in their last game. The under in that following game has gone 123-96-3 (56.2%) ATS, good for a 9.8% ROI.

The Warriors specifically have gone 26-14 to the under in this situation, including 6-4 since Kevin Durant came to town.

Look, I get it: The Warriors and Pelicans rank in the top five in offensive efficiency this season, and they’re both playing with fast pace marks. But it’s clear that the public overreacts to the Warriors both ATS and in terms of their total.

The long-term trend of fading teams after a high scoring output is the icing on the cake.

For some on-court analysis, despite the high pace with which these squads play, they’re still good at forcing opponents into halfcourt sets (although part of that is due to efficient offenses). But it’s more than that: The Dubs, for example, are the fourth-best team getting back in transition off missed shots. The Pelicans are top 10 in limiting transition opportunities and those off steals.

But again, this is really about the market’s overreaction to the Dubs always and especially after an offensive explosion. I’ll take the under here, and I’d lean Pels ATS given the trends above, too. Bryan Mears


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.