Pelicans vs Kings Prediction & Pick Tonight

Here's everything you need to know about Pelicans vs. Kings on Monday, Dec. 4 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The Sacramento Kings host the New Orleans Pelicans in the first Western Conference showdown of the NBA In-Season Tournament. It’s a matchup we’ve seen twice this season, with the Pelicans taking both games in New Orleans and also covering the spread both times.

The Pelicans find themselves at relative full strength and it’s coming at the perfect time. CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy III missed out on Saturday’s loss to the Bulls, but that was likely just a precaution ahead of Monday’s In-Season Tournament game. New Orleans will be without Larry Nance Jr. for most (possibly all) of December, but the returns of Murphy III (meniscus) and McCollum (chest) should be a huge boost to the Pelicans' offense.

Let's get to our Pelicans vs. Kings prediction and pick.

New Orleans ranks just 19th in Offensive Rating on the season per Cleaning the Glass (114), but has posted a 119.6 rating in the past two weeks, which is good enough for 10th. The Pelicans have gotten more consistent play from Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram — an offensive pairing with talent, if not an overabundance of synergy. Ingram has played well and seems to play even better against the Kings, averaging 24.8 points, five rebounds and 4.9 assists in 10 games vs. Sacramento since the bubble season.

Defensively, New Orleans is also on the rise and ranks fifth in Defensive Rating (111.2). The Pelicans' defense passes the eye test, but the advanced stats don’t show a lot of individual defensive prowess. The only positive defenders by Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus — a stat found on Dunks and Threes — are Herb Jones (+1.0) and Dyson Daniels (+1.5), who rank in the 85th and 93rd percentile. Every other Pelicans' defender is a negative DEPM player. Instead of individual prowess, their defensive improvement is coming from a concerted emphasis on crashing the boards and forcing turnovers.

The Kings have put together a string of impressive wins lately, including a dramatic home win against the Warriors and a 123-117 win over the defending champion Denver Nuggets on Saturday to tie for first place in the Pacific Division with the Phoenix Suns.

Sacramento has been a completely different team with De’Aaron Fox this season, going 9-4 with him and just 2-3 without him. And since coming back from injury on Nov. 13, Fox has been practically unstoppable, averaging 30 points, 6.8 assists and 4.8 rebounds in 10 games on 48.6% shooting.

In the two games against New Orleans this season, Fox scored 26 and 14 points. Based on how he’s playing, I’d be looking to some of his over props, though he hasn’t been as dominant against the Pelicans lately. In the past three seasons, Fox is averaging just 22.7 points per game — well below his current points prop line of 27.5. I wouldn’t take his under in points, based off his recent form, but I won’t be taking any overs either.

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The Pelicans have dominated the recent matchups, covering and winning in five of the past seven games. Will the Pelicans continue their recent dominance of the Kings? Or will Sacramento get revenge at home?

I'm playing the Pelicans at +4. New Orleans is getting healthy at just the right time and this is a great opportunity to take the points, even on the road. In the two games Sacramento won last season, New Orleans was without Williamson (although the Kings were missing Fox in one of those). I think this is a particularly bad matchup as the Kings struggle against the Pelicans' sheer size.

However, if you disagree and like the Kings, I recommend taking them in the first quarter. The Kings have started hot this season, going 5-3 ATS at home. They've also covered the past four first quarters against the Pelicans. A same-game moneyline parlay with Kings 1Q and Pelicans full game is +500 at FanDuel and I really like that look as a nibble.

I’ll also bet Brandon Ingram to go Over 20.5 points. This line is too short against a Kings team that struggles to defend — especially in the midrange. They’re allowing the second-most shots in the midrange, which is where Ingram goes to work. He ranks in the 100th percentile for attempts and is scoring at a 50% clip, per Cleaning the Glass. Ingram has cleared 21 points in eight of his past 10 against Sacramento since the bubble and is averaging 24 points per game in his past 15 games, exceeding this line in 13 of them. Pivot to Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists if his points line goes to 21.5.

Picks: Pelicans +4 (1u) | Brandon Ingram Over 20.5 Points (1u) | Kings 1Q ML/Pelicans Full-Game Moneyline +500 (.25u)

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