Pelicans vs. Mavericks Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet Luka, Dallas to Cover

Pelicans vs. Mavericks Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet Luka, Dallas to Cover article feature image

Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks, Naji Marshall #8 of the New Orleans Pelicans.

  • The Mavericks host the Pelicans in an intriguing Western Conference matchup on Saturday night.
  • Dallas has a couple key advantages and our analyst believes the Mavericks can cover this number.
  • Jacob McKenna details his pick below.

Pelicans vs. Mavericks Odds

Pelicans Odds+7
Mavericks Odds-7
Time8 p.m. ET
TVNBA League Pass
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The New Orleans Pelicans will kick off a five-game road trip on Saturday, with the first stop of the trip being in Dallas to face the Mavericks.

New Orleans enters this matchup with an overall record of 24-15 after a loss against the Brooklyn Nets last night, scoring just 102 points in the matchup.

Dallas finds themselves just behind the Pelicans in the Western Conference standings, entering this matchup with an overall record of 22-17 after a rough loss to Boston in their most recent matchup.

With two of the top teams in the Western Conference facing off against one another, we will likely see a very competitive game between the Pelicans and Mavericks. However, both teams have some crucial players listed on the injury report.

Will the Pelicans be the team that overcomes their absences and take the win in their second game in two nights, or will Dallas defend its home court? Here’s a look at the odds, as well as our pick and prediction for Pelicans vs. Mavericks.

Shorthanded Pelicans in Bad Spot

This game will the be the second game in two nights for the Pels, a spot that has been unfavorable for them this season. According to TeamRankings the Pelicans are 2-3 overall this season on the second night of back-to-backs. In those five games, the Pelicans have allowed their opponents to score an average of 116.2 points per game, showing they can easily be exposed when their opponent has the rest advantage.

Furthermore, New Orleans will be without Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson tonight, which further complicates this matchup. Williamson has been healthy for most of the season, but his recent injury left him out of Friday's game against the Nets. Despite being up 11 points at halftime, New Orleans went on to lose that game 108-102, which could be a sign of things to come.

In that matchup the Pelicans shot just 40% from the floor overall, down from their season average of 47.8%. Additionally, it appeared that the Pelicans were not able to establish themselves in the painted area, as they ended the game with just 42 points scored in the paint as opposed to their season average of 54.7.

The loss of Williamson will obviously be impactful, and the Pelicans have proven that they are a much different team without him on the floor.

Mavericks Should Right the Ship at Home

The Mavericks are coming off of one of their worst showings of the season, albeit against the Boston Celtics, arguably the best team in the NBA. In that game Dallas was outscored 124-95, shooting just 38% from the floor overall and 22% from beyond the arc. However, that game is not a reflection of how well this team this played this season, and more likely than not was a fluke. According to NBA Advanced Stats the Mavericks own a home record of 15-6, and in those matchups have posted a Net Rating of 5.4.

That rating ranks 12th in the NBA this season and is a massive increase from their Net Rating of -3.2 on the road, showing that Dallas has been getting the job done on both ends of the floor on their home court. The Mavericks have been able to post that rating because of their outstanding ability to defend the perimeter at home this season, where they are allowing their opponents to shoot just 33.8% from this season.

Additionally, Dallas sees their Offensive Rating rise to 116.4 from their rating of 112.9 on the road, further proving that this is a a squad that increases their production on both ends of the floor while on their home court.

Luka Doncic is listed on the injury report along with Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber, but Doncic is expected to play in this matchup, which obviously helps Dallas' chances.

Pelicans-Mavericks Pick

The biggest advantages that Dallas has in this matchup is the rest advantage and the health advantage, both of which put them in a position to win this matchup.

Additionally, the Pelicans have struggled a little bit on the road this season, where they are just 7-10 overall. In those games the Pelicans have posted an Offensive and Defensive Rating of 112.2, both of which are a massive difference from their ratings at home (Offensive- 116.6, Defensive- 108.9).

Combine that with the with fact this is a back-to-back for the Pelicans, and I think the Mavericks will bounce back in a big way after a bad loss on Thursday. I like this spread to 8.

Pick: Mavericks -7 (Play up to -8)

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Daniel Preciado
May 27, 2024 UTC