The Sacramento Kings (3-13) and Denver Nuggets (12-3) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. EST from Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The game will broadcast live on ALT.
The Nuggets are 11-point favorites over the Kings on the spread (Nuggets -11), with the over/under set at 237 total points. The Nuggets are -600 favorites to win outright on the moneyline, while the Kings are +400 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Kings vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, November 22.
My Kings vs Nuggets Prediction
- Kings vs Nuggets pick: Nuggets Team Total Under 125.5 (-115)
My Kings vs Nuggets best bet is on Denver to stay under its team total, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Kings vs Nuggets Odds
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 237 -110o / -110u | +425 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 237 -110o / -110u | -600 |
Kings vs Nuggets NBA Preview
Sacramento is in a free fall at the moment, given its eight straight losses ahead of a visit to Denver on Saturday night.
Domantas Sabonis, the team's third-leading scorer (17.2 PPG), remains unavailable after tests revealed a partial meniscus tear in his left knee following a loss to the Spurs last Sunday.
While the roster initially looked decent on paper heading into the campaign, there seems to be a lack of balance with so many offensive-minded players like Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Malik Monk and even Russell Westbrook.
Neither of those players is necessarily considered a defensive stopper at this stage of their careers. As a result, we've seen Sacramento post the third-worst defensive rating, allowing 120.7 points per 100 possessions.
Yet, even with a leaky defense, the Kings' over-under mark is just 8-8 on the year, considering their average total of 234.1 is among the 10th highest across the league.
If we turn to the Nuggets, they're currently in the ascendancy, winning nine of their last 10 games, while boasting the second-best win percentage in the conference at .800 (12-3).
Denver had one of the best offseasons by fortifying its bench with high-impact players like Bruce Brown Jr., Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas.
A lack of depth last season really hampered the Nuggets' title aspirations when they faced the eventual champions, Oklahoma City, in the Western Conference Semifinals.
This season, Denver's bench is averaging 17.5 minutes per game, which is up from 14.5 a year ago. There's a sense that the current roster has more like-for-like replacements, allowing the team to function more efficiently.
A recent injury to Aaron Gordon could provide a further stress test to the Nuggets' depth after the Denver forward strained his hamstring just three minutes into Friday's away matchup against the Rockets.
After the game, Nuggets head coach David Adelman said Gordon is expected to miss some time, as he'll likely join Christian Braun on the sidelines, who remains out until early January.
Given Denver's early success, one can easily underestimate the impact of Gordon's potential absence. And while the Kings' early struggles might suggest they wouldn't have much to offer, I've identified a situational spot the market has been slow to adjust to.
Kings vs Nuggets Prediction, Betting Analysis
I don't want any part of either team as a side for this game. While I'd much rather lay the points with Denver, the quick turnaround is enough of a reason to avoid backing the favorites.
As for the Kings, their -12.6 Net Rating is the third-worst in the league, following their third 30-point defeat of the season.
Although I'm unsure of what kind of response we'll get from Sacramento, having an additional day of rest should be to its advantage.
Historically, when home teams on short rest are laying 11.5 or more points following two away games, the total is 322-268-110 (54.6%) to the under.
Moreover, we're roughly a month into the season, and this will be the third meeting between the two teams. That familiarity should also benefit Sacramento as it tries to slow down the Nuggets.
At the time of writing, DraftKings lists Denver's team total at 125.5, and that number feels a bit rich given the points highlighted above.
As a result, playing the Nuggets under their team total offers the best value for this matchup as the two teams get set to lock horns for a third time.
Pick: Nuggets Team Total Under 125.5 (-115)
Spread
I don't like the spread line tonight.
Moneyline
I'm also not betting on either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I see value in the Nuggets Team Total Under.
