The Sacramento Kings (1-2) and Oklahoma City Thunder (4-0) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on FDSOK.
The Thunder are 10.5-point favorites over the Kings on the spread (Thunder -10.5), with the over/under set at 227.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -550 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Sacramento is +375 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Kings vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, October 28.
My Kings vs Thunder Prediction
- Kings vs Thunder pick: Kings +10.5 (-110)
My Thunder vs Kings best bet is on Sacramento to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Kings vs Thunder Odds
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 227.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 227.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
Kings vs Thunder NBA Preview
The reigning NBA champions have started this season just as they did last, looking unbeatable when rolling, already with four wins in four games.
Although they had to go through overtime to defeat both the Rockets and Pacers in their first two games, the Thunder later won with ease in regulation against the Hawks on Saturday and the Mavericks last night.
The Kings, on the other hand, are trying to find their footing with some adjustments to their rotation and an offense going through new point guard Dennis Schroder.
The constant has been Zach LaVine's offensive output, scoring 30+ points in all three games so far. With Domantas Sabonis and DeMar DeRozan alongside, this Kings team should do better if they manage to get stops on defense.
The key to this game will be OKC's fatigue, as this is the second night of a back-to-back and the team's third game in four days.
The Thunder have a short rotation at the moment, and seven players had 27+ minutes yesterday. Nikola Topic, Thomas Sorber, and Kenrich Williams are out, while Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, and Isaiah Joe are questionable for tonight.
The Thunder could give key players a break or have them sit early if they are comfortably ahead, which could help the Kings late in the game.
Our Bet Labs system recommends backing Sacramento to cover the spread.
Kings vs Thunder Prediction, Betting Analysis
The system titled "Fading Tired Home Teams" targets NBA regular-season matchups where fatigue and overvaluation intersect, creating an edge for visiting teams.
Home teams that have played multiple games in a short span, often three to five within five days, tend to experience a drop in energy and defensive consistency despite the advantage of being on their own court.
The market often overlooks this subtle fatigue effect, assuming comfort at home offsets physical wear, but in reality, quick turnarounds and short rest lead to slower rotations, weaker transition defense, and less efficiency late in games.
Visiting teams facing these tired hosts, particularly when they are more rested and entering the matchup with focus and travel rhythm, tend to outperform expectations against the spread.
This setup consistently rewards bettors who recognize that rest and intensity outweigh location when home favorites are running on fumes.
Pick: Kings +10.5 (-110, bet365)
Thunder vs Kings Betting Trends
