The San Antonio Spurs (11-4) and Phoenix Suns (10-6) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. EST from Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Ariz. The game will broadcast live on AZFamily.
The Suns are favored by -3 on the spread, with the over/under set at 234.5 total points. The Suns are -150 favorites to win outright on the moneyline, while the Spurs are +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Spurs vs. Suns predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, November 23.
My Spurs vs Suns Prediction
- Spurs vs Suns pick: Luka Kornet Under 10.5 Rebound + Assists
My Spurs vs Suns best bet is a prop on Luka Kornet in his paint battle, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Spurs vs Suns Odds
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 234.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 234.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Spurs vs Suns NBA Preview
The Spurs have been learning a lot about themselves over the past week as they continue to play without their young phenom Victor Wembanyama. San Antonio is 3-0 this season without Wemby, following a calf injury that sidelined him.
Although two of those wins came against the Kings and Grizzlies, two teams with a combined record of 10-24, Thursday's 135-126 victory over a 10-7 Hawks team was undoubtedly impressive.
Moreover, when you consider that San Antonio is also without Dylan Harper (calf) and Stephon Castle (hip), two players who average 31 points combined, you have to give this Spurs team a ton of credit for its depth.
San Antonio has as many as eight players who average double figures, with De'Aaron Fox (23.1 PPG) being the team's second-leading scorer since his return to action after missing the start of the season with a hamstring injury.
As a result, I'm not entirely surprised the Spurs opened as 3.5-point road underdogs against Phoenix, with that number even falling to +2.5 at some sportsbooks.
While the Suns are 10-6 on the year, according to TeamRankings, Phoenix has played the second-softest schedule thus far this season.
Call me a skeptic, but I think you have to be somewhat suspicious of any team that currently has Dillon Brooks as its second-leading scorer. Brooks is averaging 21 points per game, which is a career-best in his nine years in the league. Last season, he averaged 14 points across 75 games with the Rockets.
To the Suns' credit, you can only play the schedule that's in front of you, and their top-10 Net Rating does warrant some merit.
Nonetheless, my power ratings have these two teams separated by only two points. However, I've spotted a player prop that could offer even better value when picking our best bet.
Spurs vs Suns Prediction, Betting Analysis
One might have expected Luke Kornet's production to increase dramatically with Wembanyama sidelined. However, the backup center averaged just six points with six rebounds and two assists across the three games.
Kornet only averaged an additional two minutes above his season average (25.3), while Kelly Olynyk, another backup center, has seen a bigger jump in his usage.
Despite averaging 11.5 minutes per game across six appearances, Olynyk's playing time has jumped to 16.5 per contest in the three games without Wemby.
Yet, the bookmakers have somewhat overstated Kornet's impact as Wembanyama's backup. Kornet's rebounds + assists prop is available at 10.5—a number he has failed to cover in 16 straight games against opponents ranked in the top-10 for rebounds allowed.
The Suns certainly fit that category, as their 41.6 rebounds allowed have them eighth in the league.
Moreover, Kornet averaged just 4.5 rebounds and assists in his two meetings against the Suns last season. In his eight years in the league, Kornet has never averaged 10.5 rebounds + assists, which makes this line even more of a headscratcher.
This is a prop you'll want to keep an eye on the rest of the year, at least until bookmakers bring themselves to finally make an adjustment.
Pick: Luka Kornet Under 10.5 Rebound + Assists
Spread
I don't see value in the spread tonight.
Moneyline
I'm also not betting on either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
I really don't like the game total lines that sportbooks offer for this game.
Suns vs Spurs Betting Trends
