Sunday’s NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions: Paul George, Jayson Tatum Tabbed Top Picks on Card (April 4)
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Boston Celtics standout Jayson Tatum.
Happy Easter! Hopefully, everyone is spending their Sunday with family and taking advantage of a full day of NBA action.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the Gonzaga-UCLA thriller. College basketball really isn't my thing, but Saturday was an instant classic. That was easily one of the best basketball games I watched in a while, and in honor of Jalen Suggs’ improbable heave from just inside half court, I’m including a three-point prop in my plays.
There are a slew of star players listed as questionable to play, so make sure to check out the ActionLabs Insiders Dashboard ahead of game time.
With seven games on tap, I’m targeting a player that should see a healthy dose of looks from beyond the arc, with another All-Star hitting the boards in a battle of Los Angeles teams.
For those who are new to this article, we'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Paul George — Over 5.5 Rebounds (-127)
|Lakers vs. Clippers||Clippers -10.5|
|Time||3:30 p.m. ET|
I like George’s rebounding line for the matchup against the rival Los Angeles Lakers. The Clippers are whopping 10.5-point favorites, and with both teams only a game apart for third and fourth place in the Western Conference, this is where the Clippers start to pull away.
The Clippers are 7-3 overall in their last 10 games (7-3 ATS), but they’ve lost their last two contests, one of which came at the hands of the woeful Orlando Magic. The Lakers are 5-5 in their last 10 (4-6 ATS), and have strung together three victories in their last four games. Granted, those wins came against sub-.500 teams in Sacramento, Orlando and Cleveland.
George is averaging 6.3 rebounds over the course of the season, but he’s been more aggressive on the boards as of late. In his last five games, he’s averaging 10 rebounds per game.
A majority of his rebounds have come on the defensive end of the floor and, fortunately, the Lakers are shooting 44% from the field in their five contests — ninth-worst in the NBA in that span, per NBA Advanced Stats.
It’s not like George struggles against the Lakers either. Earlier this season, he finished with 33 points, six rebounds and three assists against the Lakers, plus he’s averaging 6.2 rebounds in his career versus the Lakeshow.
George’s rebounding line is underpriced at 5.5 boards. While the market has the Clippers as double-digit favorites, this will be a competitive game given four teams are within two games of the No. 3 through No. 6 seeds in the Western Conference.
The Clippers are poised to maintain their grasp of the No. 3 seed as home favorites, and George should have no issue clearing six rebounds. According to Fansure, he’s exceeded 5.5 rebounds in 10 of his last 11 games against opponents with a winning record, with an average of 7.2 rebounds per game over that span.
Our model projects George grabbing 6.4 rebounds, and with a bet quality of 8 out of 10, take the over on George’s rebounding total.
Jayson Tatum — Over 2.5 3-PT Shots Made (-139)
|Hornets vs. Celtics||Celtics -9|
|Time | TV||6 p.m. ET|
The Charlotte Hornets are one of the worst teams in the league at defending the 3-point line. Not only do they allow the most 3-point attempts per contest (40.3), but they surrender the second-most made threes as well at 14.6 per game, per NBA Advanced Stats.
Tatum comes into this affair averaging 2.8 threes made per game. However, he’s seen that number rise over his last five games, increasing his 3-point attempts from 7.4 to 9.4 and his makes from 2.8 to 3.8. Jaylen Brown remains listed as questionable, so there is a good chance Tatum will see an uptick in offensive touches with his fellow All-Star in street clothes.
The Hornets are also going to be without Gordon Hayward for the next four weeks. According to StatMuse, in the four games without Hayward this season, the Hornets' defensive rating fell to 123.2 (which would be the worst in the NBA). On top of that, opponents shot 40% from deep in games where Hayward was inactive.
The Celtics are in a dogfight for a playoff spot right now, so this game takes on more significance with the Hornets sitting at fourth in the East. Expect Tatum to come out firing from deep with the Celtics tracking as home favorites against the injury-riddled Hornets.
We project Tatum to hit 3.1 threes, and if his recent performance is any indication, this will be an easy target for Tatum to reach.