Raptors-76ers Betting Guide: Should You Follow the Public on Philly?

Raptors-76ers Betting Guide: Should You Follow the Public on Philly? article feature image

Photo credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joel Embiid

Betting Odds: Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers

  • Spread: 76ers -2.5
  • Over/Under: 231.5
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: TNT

>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets

In a battle of the East’s best teams, the 38-16 Toronto Raptors will travel to Philly to take on the 34-19 76ers.

Is there any value in tonight’s spread or total? Our analysts dive in.

Betting Trends to Know

Can the 76ers bounce back after losing to the Kings on the last leg of their road trip? The 76ers were coming off a win against the Warriors when they lost to Sacramento — a spot that has tortured teams this season.

The 76ers now face the current 2-seed in the East, the Raptors, at home. Over the last three seasons, Philly is 37-18 ATS (67.3%) at home against over-.500 teams, the most profitable team in the NBA in that spot. — Evan Abrams

The Raptors (30-24) and 76ers (28-24-1) are two of the most profitable over teams this season. A majority of tickets are on the over in tonight’s game.

But since 2005, when two teams with winning over records play, the under has gone 1,582-1,449-40 (52.2%) in the regular season.– John Ewing

Mears: How I’m Handicapping Tonight’s Game

This is the fourth meeting between these Finals hopefuls this year, with the home team holding serve in each. The most recent meeting was right before Christmas in Philly; Kawhi Leonard and Serge Ibaka were out, and the Raptors were held to just 89.8 points per 100 possessions — the fourth percentile of games this year.

The line here is interesting: The public is on the 76ers, who are getting 67% of the bets and 61% of the money. That said, the line has moved from Philly -4 at open to -2.5 as of 1:30 p.m. ET.

The biggest matchup question between these two teams is in the paint. The 76ers like to attack the rim, and they did it with ease in their December win, taking 44% of their shots there and converting at a ridiculous 72.7% clip.

Ben Simmons went 11-of-13 for 26 points and Joel Embiid went 10-of-15 for 27. The question is whether that will continue tonight with Kawhi and Ibaka back; Greg Monroe had to play 22 minutes in that last game and Pascal Siakam had to play small-ball 5.

In the prior game earlier in December, Philly took just 29% of its shots at the rim. The scouting report isn’t that difficult against the 76ers: Turn Ben Simmons into a jump-shooter. He took just six shots in that game and was incredibly turnover-prone.

Wilson Chandler won’t move any betting lines, but I’ll be curious to see how much the 76ers miss him in a tough matchup like this. Their effective field goal percentage has dropped by 4.8% — the 96th percentile of players this year — without him on the floor. The 76ers have hit 5.1% fewer 3s overall and 9.6% fewer specifically from the corner.

Mike Muscala will likely get the start without him, and he’s been a fine shooter this year. But it will also mean more minutes for guys like Jonah Bolden and Corey Brewer — essentially non-threats from the perimeter. Will Philly be able to stagger lineups enough to keep space open for Simmons to attack the paint?

Given all of those factors, I’d slightly lean toward the Raptors here on the road, especially if this number climbs back to +3 or higher. The 76ers have been excellent at home this year, and the Raptors have struggled on the road — they’re just 10-15-2 ATS there — but Toronto is also 6-5 ATS as underdogs.

These squads are battling for home-court advantage in the East, and I think we’ll see their best tonight. That’s probably why Kyle Lowry is playing despite initially being reported as doubtful. This is close, but I’ll lean Toronto at +3 or higher. — Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.