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Wizards vs. Heat Odds, Preview, Prediction: Bet Washington in Road Rematch (November 25)

Wizards vs. Heat Odds, Preview, Prediction: Bet Washington in Road Rematch (November 25) article feature image
  • The Washington Wizards and Miami Heat square off Friday after playing just two days ago.
  • The Heat are short favorites (3.5-point spread) but are dealing with a litany of injuries.
  • Joe Dellera explains why the value is on the road team in this division matchup.

Wizards vs. Heat Odds

Wizards Odds +3.5
Heat Odds -3.5
Over/Under 213
Time 8 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Now that everyone is stuffed from the Thanksgiving Holiday, the Washington Wizards head to Miami to take on the Heat in a Black Friday matchup.

Let’s break down this matchup and find the best deal in the market.

Wizards Offense is Poor, But They Can Still Defend

The Wizards have been down a few players recently and have a lengthy injury report. They currently are listing Bradley Beal (thigh), Rui Hachimura (ankle), Monte Morris (ankle), and Johnny Davis (groin) as questionable for tonight’s contest. Both Beal and Morris are starters so it would impact their backcourt depth significantly.

The Wizards have played above .500 ball with a 10-8 record through about 20% of the season but they have struggled to score with just the 27th ranked Adjusted Offensive Rating. Fortunately for the Wizards, they’ve been able to maintain a Top-10 Adjusted Defensive Ranking and they are allowing the third-lowest Effective Field Goal Percentage to their opponents.

While Washington is truly elite at protecting the rim and midrange, they have struggled from 3-point range. They are limiting their opponents’ opportunities, but their opponents shoot 37.4% from deep, which is about 1.2% better than the league average.

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Heat Could Be Significantly Shorthanded

The Miami Heat are also dealing with a litany of injuries and will be without Jimmy Butler (knee) for this contest. Additionally, the Heat are listing the following players on the injury report: Bam Adebayo (knee – probable), Tyler Herro (ankle – questionable), Max Strus (shoulder – doubtful), Gabe Vincent (knee – questionable), Duncan Robinson (ankle – doubtful), Haywood Highsmith (hip – probable), and Dewayne Dedmon (foot – questionable). Considering Tyler Herro played on Wednesday I’d expect him to suit up tonight and command an even higher Usage than his already team-high 26.8%.

Miami has not been very good this season, with similar struggles to the Wizards. They are 8-11 but their Offense is just 23rd in Adjusted Offensive Rating compared to their 11th ranked Adjusted Defensive Rating.

A big change for Miami has been their shooting prowess, or lack thereof. Last season they lead the league in 3-point percentage, 38.6%. This season they are 25th with a 34.2% mark from 3-point range. That is a significant swing especially since the majority of their personnel are the same from last season.

I’d look for Miami to try and get Caleb Martin, Tyler Herro, and Kyle Lowry some looks from deep today since they have the top 3-point percentage marks on the team and the Wizards 3-point defense is a pressure point.

On defense, Miami actually should be performing a bit better. They have the sixth-worst allowed eFG% compared to their tenth-best expected mark. They do a great job of limiting looks at the rim but they then allow their opponents to get looks from beyond the arc.

However, they are able to counterbalance that with about league average defense of the 3-point shot due to their hustle, rotations, and having a defensive anchor such as Bam Adebayo.

Wizards-Heat Pick

This line is currently set at Wizards +3.5 and they have received some sharp action after opening at +5. Currently, this line is a bit of a hedge all of the injury news, especially Bradley Beal. These teams played on Wednesday night and Miami won 113-105 as a 5-point favorite with Bradley Beal sitting.

Winning back-to-back games with a holiday in between is difficult, and with the line move, I think now is the time to buy in on the Wizards. If Beal is ruled in this line should move closer to -2. Even if Beal is unable to go, Washington should see an improvement on their 26.3% shooting from downtown.

Pick: Wizards +3.5

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