Wizards vs. Knicks Odds, Betting Picks & Predictions: Does a Rested New York Team Have the Advantage?
Photo credit: Will Newton/Getty Images. Pictured: Julius Randle vs. Wizards
- The odds for Wizards vs. Knicks on Wednesday have moved to Knicks -3, with an over/under of 227. The total is actually down a bit from the opener (228.5).
- With Washington on a back-to-back, should you be backing New York at home? Our NBA betting experts detail their favorite picks.
Wizards at Knicks Odds & Betting Picks
- Spread: Knicks -2.5
- Over/Under: 230
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
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The Knicks … are favored?
New York will take on the Wizards tonight, who are on the second leg of a back-to-back, coming off a nice win against the Bulls.
Do the more rested Knicks have the advantage here? Our experts discuss below.
Betting Trend to Know
The New York Knicks have not been favored in many games season — and you can imagine why — but when they have been favored, they’ve been a pretty solid bet. They are 7-3 straight-up and against-the-spread (ATS) as a favorite this season and have covered in their past five games in that spot.
Wizards-Knicks Sharp Report
The spread hasn’t received a ton of action so far today: We’ve tracked just one steam move, which was on the Knicks at -2.5. That moved it to Knicks -3 from that opening number, and it’ll likely stay there barring any additional sharp action given that the majority of bets (62%) and money (65%) is on the Wizards.
Most sharps have been targeting this over/under, although they seem to be in somewhat disagreement on the number. We first tracked a steam move on the over at 228.5, and then bettors hit it again at over 230, but recently we’ve seen a steam move on the under 230.
As a result, it’s back to the opening number of 228.5. There’s a large bets vs. money discrepancy in this one, which is interesting: 73% of the bets are on the over, but 80% of the bets are on the under, suggesting that’s the sharper side.
Mears: Fade the Tired Wizards?
My colleague, John Ewing, wrote a piece today about how teams on a back-to-back are undervalued right before the All-Star break. On the final two nights leading up to vacation for these players, teams on a B2B have historically covered the spread at just a 41.1% rate. (Teams in that spot have been right around 50% in all other situations, for some context.)
Both teams have been scrappy lately, ranking around league average in Net Rating over the last two weeks. The Knicks won four straight before falling to the Hawks in a late comeback situation, and they’ve actually played some smart basketball of late. They’re hitting the boards and winning in that regard, along with holding opponents to tougher halfcourt possessions.
That will be key against the Wizards, who rank top-five in pace of the last several weeks and like to get out in transition for easy looks. They struggled to do that in the first two meetings against Washington, but that will be critical tonight.
Perhaps the biggest question tonight is whether the Wizards can get up for this game and hit 3-pointers. The Knicks lately have really attacked the rim in lieu of taking shots from beyond the arc, which is fine, especially against a Wizards team that ranks bottom-five at protecting the rim, but they’ll be at a disadvantage in the math game. But if the Wizards have tired legs, that may fall in the Knicks’ favor.
Given the trend of fading teams on a back-to-back before the All-Star break, I took a small position on the Knicks at -2.5, although I wouldn’t likely push beyond -3 here.
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.