College Baseball Odds & Picks: 3 Best Bets for Friday, Including Arkansas vs. Alabama (May 20)
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Connor Noland.
- The final weekend of the college baseball regular season is upon us, and there is plenty of betting value Friday night.
- We see value in two ACC games — Florida State vs. North Carolina and Notre Dame vs. Miami — and one SEC game in Arkansas vs. Alabama.
- Check out all three of Doug Ziefel's college baseball breakdowns and picks below.
Well, folks, we made it. This is the last weekend of the regular season. However, business only picks up from here. So for this final Friday night slate, only some aces are wild, as many series kicked off yesterday.
It's a big weekend for the ACC as its regular-season titles are still up for grabs. We're going to be diving into two of them before we round out the evening in Tuscaloosa.
First, we head to Chapel Hill, where Florida State has the right man on the mound to bounce back from last night's loss. Then, we go south to Coral Gables as the Hurricanes look to clinch their final series. Finally, for the nightcap, the Razorbacks will bring out their big guns here in Game 2 as they try to end the year on a high note.
Florida State vs. UNC
6 p.m. ET · ACC Network Extra
If you've been along for the ride this season, you know who we're turning to here. Parker Messick will be on the bump for the Seminoles, and they'll need his best outing to pull this crucial series even.
Messick is just the man for the job, as he'll enter this start in search of his seventh win of the year. He brings along a 2.94 ERA and the highest strikeout total in the country with 132 in 82 innings of work. Opposing batters have also hit just .198 off of him.
The Tar Heels offense provided some heroics last night, but if they're presumably held quiet, the Seminoles may open up on their staff.
Brandon Schaeffer is projected to go for the UNC in this one, and while his ERA's too shabby, his BAA is concerning. Opposing batters have hit .301 against Schaffer, and many of the hits have gone a long way as he's tied for the team lead in homers allowed.
Florida State's lineup is nowhere near potent, but it should scratch across enough runs to support Messick.
Pick: Florida State -140
Notre Dame vs. Miami
7 p.m. ET · ACC Network
The Hurricanes took the opening game of this series, as Carson Palmquist navigated the Irish much longer than John Michael Bertrand battled the Canes.
As for tonight, I'm expecting a similar outcome with Austin Temple making his 11th start of the year for the Irish. Temple has been solid for, entering with a 3.33 ERA and .189 BAA over 48 innings of work.
The issue with Temple is that when he allows hits, they're hard. Temple ranks second on the staff in homers allowed.
It just so happens that the long ball is a big part of the Hurricanes' game. They have swatted 75 of them as a team this season, and that's on top of an impressive .294 batting average. It may not happen fast, but the Miami lineup is hard to contain as it averages nearly eight runs per game.
If the Canes can get anywhere near that average, it should be enough for Karson Ligon.
Ligon will be up for the challenge that is Notre Dame's lineup. His 4.10 ERA is a bit inflated due to a few blowups this season, but his stuff is solid when he's on.
In the end, the Hurricanes may have to outslug the Irish. But if we get a good outing from Ligon, they can run away with this one.
Pick: Miami -125
Arkansas vs. Alabama
8 p.m. ET · SEC Network
The Razorbacks opted to keep their ace on the same schedule despite the series starting a day early, and it's given us a significant mismatch to jump on.
Connor Noland will toe the slab for Arkansas in this one, and he's in line to carve up the Crimson Tide in his final start of the season.
Alabama's lineup really has been all or nothing. It hits .280 as a team but boasts a combined .360 OBP and averages just 5.5 runs per game.
The Tide may be lucky to get that against Noland, who has dealt Friday after Friday. He enters with a 3.38 ERA and has racked up 86 punchouts over 77 innings of work.
There's a big discrepancy between Noland and Bama starter Jacob McNairy. McNairy will make his 11th start of this season and has an ERA of 4.61 and a BAA of .284 to this point. He also doesn't miss many bats, as he averages far less than a strikeout per inning.
Those are red flags — even against a hot-and-cold lineup like Arkansas. The Razorbacks piled on seven runs last night against Bama's ace, and they should add to that total tonight.
Pick: Arkansas -165
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