College Baseball World Series Super Regionals: Odds, Best Bets for Friday, June 9
Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Brandon Sproat (Florida)
These teams are in the final stretch on the Road to Omaha as Super Regionals are set to commence today.
I have three angles that I love for today's slate, so here's a breakdown as the first pitch is nearing.
Virginia -205 vs. Duke
12 pm ET · ESPN2/ESPN+
If you read my futures piece from before regionals, you know that the Virginia Cavaliers are a team that I'm confident in.
While they have a very tough Duke team in front of them, they have a significant edge at the dish in Game 1, which will set the tone for the series.
The Blue Devils are forced to start another pitcher, as their ace, Alex Gow, will throw in Game 2 after pitching in Game 7 of the regionals on Monday. However, the Cavaliers will match with their No. 2 starter, Nick Parker.
Parker comes in off a dazzling performance against ECU, where he threw seven innings of one-run ball. Parker has been phenomenal, as he comes into this start 8-0 with a 3.11 SIERA.
As for Duke, Andrew Healy has been an effective opener, and the Blue Devils will likely piece the game together after he departs.
These two teams are tied for fourth in the country in SIERA, so the true separator will be the bats.
The Cavaliers lead the nation in batting average and are seventh in wRC+. While Duke was able to flex in Conway, it's a few notches lower than Virginia at the plate.
Back Virginia to take Game 1 of the series.
Pick: Virginia -185 (Play to -200)
South Carolina vs. Florida -164
6 pm ET · ESPN2/ESPN+
The Gators were another team that needed to battle into Game 7 of regionals to make it here. However, their opponents — the South Carolina Gamecocks — bashed their way to this matchup, as they appeared to find their groove once again.
South Carolina was arguably the best team in the county at one point in the season, as its lineup was firing on all cylinders.
Unfortunately, injuries caused the Gamecocks to stumble down the stretch. However, they outscored their opposition 41-11 in three regional games.
The Gamecocks' hot streak will be put to the test as they're lined up to face Gators ace Brandon Sproat. Sproat took a massive leap forward this year and was dominant at times. He enters this matchup with a BAA of .204 and a 29.1% strikeout rate.
However, the one glaring statistic is his FIP; it's at 5.30. Sproat has been hurt by the home run ball this year, as his home run to fly ball ratio is nearly nine percent higher than last year.
That could spell trouble against this hot South Carolina lineup.
Looking at the Gators' offensive outlook, theirs is bright as well. Florida is one of the most potent teams in the nation, as it ranks second in ISO, which has translated to the 19th-best wRC+ in the country.
The Gators will face South Carolina's No. 3 starter, James Hicks, who's been very impressive down the stretch. However, he's due for some regression as his FIP and SIERA are higher than his season ERA.
Both teams are in a good spot offensively, but the weather makes their outlooks even better. The wind will be blowing out to left field tonight in Gainesville, and that will help any deep fly ball find its way over the fence.
Pick: Over 11.5 (Play to 12.5)
Oral Roberts vs. Oregon -156
8 pm ET · ESPNU/ESPN+
The Golden Eagles taking the Stillwater Regional as a four-seed was impressive, but it shouldn't be shocking when you look at the numbers. Oral Roberts is one of the most well-rounded teams in the country, as it ranks 12th in wRC+ and SIERA.
The Golden Eagles earned themselves a shot to punch a ticket to Omaha by getting past the Oregon Ducks. While they might be underdogs, they're the better team at this point.
Oregon has suffered several injuries to its pitching staff, and it was able to slug its way to this Super Regional. However, tonight, it'll have to deal with Oral Roberts ace Jakob Hall.
The sophomore right-hander has been excellent, as he enters with a 3.25 ERA and a BAA of .248. His home run to fly ball ratio of 10.6 will be critical, though, as he should be able to contain the power in the Oregon lineup.
The same can't be said for the Ducks, as their pitching staff is in a tough spot. Even with contributions from the injured arms, Oregon's team FIP is over a run higher than its ERA, and it has the 19th-highest fly-ball rate in the country.
I'm on the Golden Eagles to win this series, and it all starts with Game 1.
Pick: Oral Roberts +120 (Play to +100)
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