The final weekend of the college baseball regular season is upon us, and with a grueling conference tournament schedule looming, many teams across the country are getting their finales started early.
The bump up in scheduling has given us a loaded Thursday slate. I've found plenty of value on the board, but my best bets feature picks from Virginia vs. Louisville, Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana and Mississippi State vs Texas A&M
Let's dive into my three NCAA baseball predictions and college baseball picks for Thursday, May 14.
NCAA Baseball Predictions, Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup that Action Network's Doug Ziefel is targeting from Thursday's slate of NCAA baseball games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6 p.m | |
  | 7 p.m | |
  | 7 p.m | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. | ||
Virginia vs Louisville Prediction
The Louisville Cardinals come into this final series of the season on a major skid.
They've lost seven of their last 10 games, and it has become abundantly clear that they can't outhit their struggles on the mound, even with a lineup that possesses the nation's home run leader in Tague Davis.
Now, the Cardinals have yet to announce their rotation for this series, but whether it's Wyatt Danilowicz or Ethan Eberle, neither has proven to be a solution against ACC competition, with the Cardinals sporting an 11-16 record against ACC foes.
Outhitting their opposition tonight will be an even tougher task with Virginia ace Henry Zatkowski on the mound. Zatkowski looks to close the regular season on a high note after pitching to a 6-1 record with a 1.11 WHIP and 2.72 SIERA thus far.
He should receive plenty of run support from a Cavaliers lineup that can swing it and will get a boost from Jim Patterson Stadium, which has been very hitter-friendly this season.
Back the Hoos to take this series opener.
Pick: Virginia ML -125
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Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Prediction
Next, we head to Lafayette, Louisiana, where the No. 15 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are in for a test against the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns.
The Ragin' Cajuns come into this series hot after winning seven of their last 10 ballgames.
They've done so on the back of stellar pitching. During this recent stretch, they've held their opposition to an average of just 4.3 runs per game, a full run lower than their season average.
Looking to keep that going tonight will be Cody Brasch. Brasch has been nasty this season, entering tonight's game with a 2.47 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 10.3.
He should continue his success against a Coastal Carolina lineup that has been average this season.
While Louisiana's lineup ranks much lower, it has a far better matchup against Luke Jones and company. Jones has pitched to a 4.37 ERA for the Chanticleers, but his 6.16 xFIP is a clear indicator of regression.
He doesn't miss many bats, so if the Ragin' Cajuns can put together a few rallies, it will be all they need to pull off the upset behind Brasch.
Pick: Louisiana ML +125
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Mississippi State vs Texas A&M Prediction
Finally, we transition to the SEC, where we have a good one in store. The No. 12 Mississippi State Bulldogs travel to College Station to take on the No. 8 Texas A&M Aggies.
The Bulldogs haven't gotten much respect from the market in SEC play, and there's value on them once again tonight. They have a sizable edge on the mound with Tomas Valincius taking the bump.
Miss State's lethal lefty has pitched to a 2.52 ERA and holds a 0.99 WHIP while striking out over 12 batters per nine innings.
While he's in for a test against an Aggies lineup that ranks in the top five in OPS, wOBA and wRC+, Valincius should get run support from a Mississippi State lineup that has been excellent in its own right. The Bulldogs rank 11th nationally in OPS, wOBA and wRC+.
They present plenty of danger for Aggies starter Ethan Darden. Darden has been tremendous at generating soft contact. He has pitched to a 3.33 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, but he strikes batters out at half the rate Valincius does.
It's clear the wrong team is favored here, and the Bulldogs still hold value as slight favorites.
Pick: Mississippi State ML -105 (Play to -130)
