2023 NCAA Tournament: Expert Projects Every Team’s Real Final Four Chances

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Lance King/Getty Images. Pictured: Bill Self.

I've made my initial picks for the 2023 NCAA Tournament picks, with a No. 1 seed coming out on top.

A big reason for my rationale in making those picks is these projections. I have calculated how likely it is for every team to advance to every round of the "Big Dance."

The teams with the biggest Final Four projections are Alabama (41.6%), Purdue (28.4%), Houston (25.6%) and Kansas (24.9%). The non-No. 1 seed with the best chance to make it to the Final Four is UCLA, which is at 20.2%.

Only two teams have more than a 10% chance of making the Final Four in the Midwest region, which has Houston and Texas as the big favorites.

In the East, No. 4-seed Tennessee has the second-highest-percentage chance of the Final Four, higher than No. 2 Marquette and No. 3 Kansas State. Koerner isn’t high on the Wildcats, who are just 6.5%. Even No. 6-seed Kentucky has an 8.9% chance of the Final Four.

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2023 NCAA Tournament: Expert Projects Every Team's Final Four Chances

Below, you can find a live projection that will be updated throughout the tournament. Be sure to bookmark this page and visit back when making future bets after games tip off on Thursday:


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Nick Sterling
Jul 21, 2024 UTC