2024 Sun Belt Tournament Betting Preview, Odds, Picks & Bracket

Ladies and gentlemen, start your Championship Week engines! Conference tournament season is upon is, and the lovingly-nicknamed Fun Belt is one of the first leagues to kick off its single-elimination gauntlet.

An inclusive event, all 14 Sun Belt teams qualify for the league tournament. However, the format does favor the better squads from the regular season.

The bottom four teams play an opening round on Tuesday, Mar. 5. Six more teams join the fray on Thursday in the second round, and the quarterfinals commence on Saturday. The top four teams only need to win three games to go dancing.

A crucial difference between some mid-major tournaments, though, is that the Sun Belt tournament takes place at true neutral site. Instead of allowing the higher seeds to host games, all games are held in Pensacola, Florida – removing a usual advantage for the top squads.

It's also worth nothing that the top seed hasn't won the Sun Belt tournament since 2019. A parity-filled league, the Sun Belt often has true March mayhem.

Sun Belt Tournament Odds

Sun Belt Tournament Bracket

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Throughout the season, two schools have separated themselves from the Sun Belt pack.

James Madison (+120 to win the tournament) immediately swept the college basketball world off its feet with a dramatic win at Michigan State on opening night. Mark Byington’s squad hasn't taken its foot off the gas pedal since, going 28-3 overall on the year.

The Dukes lurk in at-large discussions thanks to that initial marquee win and such a gaudy record.

A versatile, veteran team, JMU seems set up for success in the postseason. Four of the Dukes’ top five players are fifth-year seniors, and the one that isn’t – wing Terrence Edwards Jr. – is a true senior and a leading candidate for Sun Belt Player of the Year.

The Dukes’ dominance stems from how they control the possession battle. They force a bevy of turnovers while rarely coughing it up themselves, and they're a terrific two-way rebounding outfit, as well.

As a result, JMU took more field goals than its opponent in 23 of 31 contests this year.

Of JMU’s three losses, two came at the hands of regular season champion Appalachian State (+180). The Mountaineers are an elite defensive team, completely taking away the rim and never giving up free points at the free-throw line.

Coach Dustin Kerns has one of the best shot-blockers in all of mid-majordom in Justin Abson. A long-armed sophomore, Abson is a swat machine; he tallied 12 total blocks in the two wins against James Madison.

Fellow forwards CJ Huntley and Tre’Von Spillers add to the vicious rim protection. It’s no shock App State ranks eighth nationally in 2-point percentage defense (per KenPom).

Offensively, the Mountaineers are incredibly balanced, relying on a variety of scorers to rotate having big games. Their most consistent weapon, though, is do-it-all super senior Donovan Gregory. An equally tremendous slasher and passer, Gregory is a tough cover for opposing guards because of his relentless physicality.

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Other Contenders

Past the clear top two, the Sun Belt becomes something of a "Choose Your Own Adventure" story.

Looking for a well-coached, balanced dark horse? That would be Troy (+500), one of the country’s best teams against the spread. Scott Cross & Co. went 18-9-1 vs. the number this year, though that does include a late stumble (2-4 ATS in final six).

Notably, springy sophomore forward Jackson Fields — Troy’s best defender — missed the final four games of the regular season. His status is extremely murky for this event, and he’ll likely be less than 100% if he does give it a go.

Curiously, Troy only played the top two Sun Belt titans a combined one time. The Trojans beat App State in their lone meeting, and they have yet to play James Madison. That could change in the semifinals.

If it’s a lethal offense that lures you, Arkansas State (+800) is your squad. Bryan Hodgson, former top assistant at Alabama under Nate Oats, has turned the Red Wolves into a mid-major Crimson Tide, shunning the mid-range in favor of efficient shots at the rim or from beyond the arc.

Per Hoop Math, Arkansas State takes the seventh-fewest 2-point jumpers in the country (Alabama is second in that measurement).

Perhaps you lean towards the mantra that defense wins championships. Outside of the top three, Louisiana (12/1) is the best of the remaining bunch on that end. The Ragin’ Cajuns also have four key pieces back from last year’s NCAA tournament participant, meaning they know what it takes to win this event.

Cajuns point guard Themus Fulks missed the season finale with illness, but head coach Bob Marlin has confirmed he'll be available for the Sun Belt tournament.

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Long Shots

Beyond that five, you’re digging way down into the depths.

South Alabama (50/1) and Georgia State (60/1) are next up on the odds board, but both have difficult paths.

USA is playing well of late, and it's shown upside with a win over Troy and a valiant OT loss against Appalachian State.

However, Richie Riley’s team must go through those Mountaineers in the quarterfinals after an initial battle with Georgia Southern (250/1). The Jaguars will only be a narrow favorite in that game.

Georgia State, meanwhile, must go through James Madison in the quarterfinals – and only after a coin-flip battle against Marshall (100/1) on Thursday. GSU got down 20 points in both meetings with JMU this year.

As long shots go, the best blend of talent and path is probably Southern Miss (70/1). The six-seed Golden Eagles avoid the top two until the semifinals, and the duo of Austin Crowley and Andre Curbelo is as talented as any in the entire conference.

However, Curbelo is extremely erratic, and Crowley sat out the season finale after getting banged up in USM’s penultimate contest. He'll play in the tournament, but he may not be 100%.

I don't see any appeal with Texas State (100/1), Old Dominion (250/1), Louisiana Monroe (500/1) or Coastal Carolina (500/1).

Betting Recommendations

Realistically, this tournament is extremely likely to be won by one of the top two powerhouses. Both James Madison and Appalachian State have bullied foes all conference season, and they went undefeated at home against the other 12 teams.

With true road games not being an issue in this tournament, it would be a surprise to see either get upset before the title game.

I view JMU and App State as equals, and on a neutral floor, the game will be near a pick'em (JMU perhaps a slight favorite).

Still, the Mountaineers have the slightly easier path by avoiding Troy, and their season sweep of JMU via dominant defense looms large.

App State is my pick at FanDuel’s +210 price.