Arizona vs Michigan State Pick & Prediction

Two brutes in college basketball headline the inaugural Acrisure Classic on Thanksgiving as No. 3 Arizona takes on No. 21 Michigan State in Palm Springs, California.

Arizona enters as four-point favorites with a total sitting at 145.5. These are two completely contrasting teams, with the Wildcats looking to turn games into a track meet and MSU preferring to slow things down while operating out of the half-court.

Here's NCAAB odds and a pick for Arizona vs. Michigan State.

Arizona has been nothing short of impressive out of the gates of the season. It went to Cameron Indoor and took down Duke and has obliterated any and all other competition, albeit more cupcakes than not.

Tommy Lloyd’s run-and-gun offense hasn’t skipped a beat, despite the departures of four starters from last year (Azuolas Tubelis, Kerr Kriisa, Courtney Ramey and Cedric Henderson Jr.).

What’s been most impressive, though, has been Caleb Love’s seamless transition and Kylan Boswell’s sophomore-year leap. The backcourt duo has combined for 26 points and nearly nine assists per game.

Like their foes on Thursday, this is a deep Wildcats roster. They rank 20th in bench minutes and can go 10 deep if they so choose.

Balanced is also the right word for this team, as the Wildcats have six scorers averaging double figures but not one above 14 points per game. Arizona ranks inside the top 10 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom, and has elite size in the frontcourt that's a disruption on the offensive glass.

The pair of 7-footers — Oumar Ballo and freshman Motiejus Krivas — have powered this frontcourt. Even San Diego State transfer Keshad Johnson has taken an immediate role, and all three rank inside the top 200 in offensive rebounding rate.

We know what Arizona is going to want to do each and every game — it wants to run a track meet and push the tempo. It leads to plenty of turnovers (199th in TO%), but also plenty of efficient looks.

In that game against Duke, Arizona turned the ball over 17 times. If it weren’t for the Wildcats' success at the rim and 15 offensive rebounds, we could’ve seen a flipped result.

This is a team that loves to size you up and get physical. The Wildcats attack the rim at a 50% rate and rank third in the country from a shot-selection perspective, per ShotQuality. While they rank 13th in 3-point%, they shoot a 3 on just under a third of their possessions.

This is a team that isn’t afraid to slash, and for the most part, there aren’t a ton of dominant shooters on this team. Boswell is connecting at a 68% clip, a number that should negatively regress as the season progresses.

I’ve been really impressed with what I’ve seen from Lloyd’s Wildcats. They're physical and a pest on the glass. They should limit second-chance opportunities all while pushing the pace as often as they can.

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It’s fair to say that Michigan State was overvalued entering the season. The Spartans were one of the most talked about teams across the space, carried a top-five rank and saw their NCAA Championship odds drop nearly +4000 points in the matter of an offseason.

The season opener was nothing short of a rude awakening for Michigan State, as it was stunned in overtime against James Madison. The result was so disappointing that head coach Tom Izzo called out his team for a lack of true leadership.

After winning the following game against a lowly Southern Indiana squad — Michigan State tied USI in second-half scoring — the Spartans suffered a double-digit loss to Duke.

Since then, though, we’ve seen a change out of this Michigan State team.

The Spartans have been much more physical and relentless. This is an extremely deep team — they’re 26th in bench minutes — that has a suffocating defense. They rank second in 2-point defense and inside the top 10 in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

Tyson Walker is the star of this offense and leads the team with 23 points per game. Only one other player (Malik Hall) averages double-digit points. Walker missed last game against Alcorn State with an illness, something that I think was actually beneficial to Sparty.

Michigan State finally was forced to play without its primary ball handler and scorer. Walker takes 33.8% of shots while on the floor, and while he’s elite at doing so, it can often stagnate the offense.

Instead of Walker creating all the offense, players like Tre Holloman, Coen Carr and Jeremy Fears Jr. saw expanded roles. That’s a necessity when the level of competition rises — like it does against Arizona.

Comfortability is key here for what's an extremely talented team. Against Duke, Izzo barely played that aforementioned trio — combined 32 minutes — while another freshman — Xavier Booker — saw just five minutes himself.

ShotQuality grades Michigan State out well on the offensive end, despite its shooting woes. It's outside the top 300 in 3-point%, but ranks 45th in catch-and-shoot 3s from a SQ PPP perspective. The Spartans are 33rd in rim-and-3 SQ PPP, too.

The love for Michigan State has started to die down, despite it seemingly fixing some things against Butler and Alcorn State this past week. That’s the perfect time to strike for a team that's been met with shooting woes, yet has such an incredibly high ceiling.

Michigan State is going to look to slow the pace down and play out of the half-court, something Arizona hates to do. The first step towards doing so is being able to convert on long offensive possessions.

This is going to set up as a prototypical pros vs. joes matchup. This is an Arizona team that has steamrolled its lesser competition and took down Duke with ease in one of the hardest road environments in the nation. Now they have a matchup with Sparty, a team that suffered a near double-digit loss to the Blue Devils.

But to me, this is the ultimate spot to back Michigan State.

Walker should return following an illness, and if he does, this offense should continue to pick up where it left off against Butler. We saw a more aggressive Spartans team, one that has the defensive capabilities to slow down this Wildcats offense. 

A lot will fall on the frontcourt of Hall, Carson Cooper and Mady Sissoko. Arizona will be attacking the rim all night, especially in transition. But if there’s a team that has the bodies and athleticism to match the Wildcats, it’s Michigan State. 

The Spartans force opponents into the half-court about 90% of the time, per ShotQuality. They're 330th in Adjusted Tempo and the average possession length of their opponents sit at 18 seconds (282nd). This is a top-10 defense for a reason. 

Based on ShotQuality’s data, Michigan State’s offense is due for plenty of positive regression — as is its already-excellent defense. MSU loves to run the pick-and-roll (20% of possessions), an area where Arizona sits in the high 100s in defensively. 

That is where I think Sparty can excel, using Walker in the two-man game to set up catch-and-shoot 3s, his own shot or Cooper, Hall or Sissoko rolling. MSU is 46th from a SQ PPP perspective in catch-and-shoot 3s, despite shooting just 26.3% from the perimeter. 

It’s ugly, I know. While Arizona has the easier travel out west, I do see this game closer to a coin flip. I expect Wildcats money to pour in early and drive this number up, so be patient here.

I'm personally throwing .5u on Michigan State +4 and will upgrade to a full unit after the expected Arizona steam. If it goes the opposite way, I would be OK with +3.5.

Regardless, Sparty on.

Pick: Michigan State +3.5 or Better

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