Wednesday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Getting Down on 5 Conference Tourney Games
Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Wiseguys had a tough Tuesday night. They swung and missed on Wake Forest and lost a pair of Unders in excruciating fashion. But sharps don’t sweat losing days. It happens. Stay the course, think long term. As the great philosopher Young Jeezy once said: “Scared money don’t make no money.”
After examining all percentages and line movement for Wednesday’s massive 32-game slate, here are five college basketball bets that professional players are focusing on today, including games that start at 7:00, 8:30, 9:00 and 9:30 p.m. ET.
All data as of 3:30 p.m. ET
Vanderbilt-Georgia Under 132
7:00 p.m. ET
Sharps and squares seem to be in agreement on this Under. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Under, but it accounts for 91% of dollars, a sign of Average Joe money but also sharp wagers. Sharps steamed the Under 136 before the break of dawn and hit it again at Under 134 later this morning.
This means they really like the Under (they hit it twice even though the line got worse). This heavy sharp action dropped the total down to 131 or 131.5 across the market. That’s when you had some late buyback on the Over.
Fordham-George Washington Over 130
8:30 p.m. ET
Sharp bettors have been all over conference tourney Unders (neutral courts, tired legs), but not in this under-the-radar showdown (pun intended). Sharps see a rare contrarian Over opportunity here. Nearly 60% of bets are going Under but the total has risen from 127 to 130. Wiseguys got down on the Over 129 and then sharps hit the Over 129.5.
Oregon State-Washington Under 140
9:00 p.m. ET
Nearly 70% of bets are taking the Over, yet the total has fallen from 141 to 140 since opening. It’s already down to 139, one of the sharpest offshore sportsbooks. Wiseguys triggered a trio of bet signals on the Under. At 3 a.m. ET they hit Under 141. Later in the morning they steamed under 140.
Depaul-Marquette Under 149
9:30 p.m. ET
Nearly 60% of bets are taking the Over, so why did the total fall from 152.5 to 149? Because smart money is on the Under. Wiseguys got down hard on the Under 151.
Iowa State (+5) vs. Texas
9:30 p.m. ET
Iowa State is 13-17 and has lost six in a row. So naturally public bettors say automatic fade. Not the sharps. They pounded Iowa State +6 early, triggering a pair of bet signals that forced the entire market to drop the Cyclones to +5.
This movement toward Iowa State is significant because they’re only getting 33% of bets, indicating substantial reverse line movement on the dog. Iowa State is also getting 71% of the money, a valuable bet vs. dollar discrepancy. Wes Reynolds sees a “double revenge” situational spot for the Cyclones.
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.
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If you have any questions about Sports Insights, the Betting Hangouts, or betting concepts in general, you can find me on twitter @Josh_Insights
Cover Photo via Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Iowa State forward Zoran Talley Jr. (23) sets up the offense in a recent game against Oklahoma