Thursday’s Sharp Report: Wiseguys Take a Side in Duke/UNC
Happy Thirsty Thursday! We have a jam-packed college hoops board with over 50 games on the slate tonight. Whatever you do, don’t bet them all. Having too much action is always a cardinal sin (and a great way to lose money quickly).
Instead, stay disciplined and limit your plays to the most valuable games on the board. Which ones are those? Glad you asked. After breaking down all the odds, percentages and line movement, here are the games the sharps are getting down on tonight.
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 80% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line fall from Duke -8 to -6.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.