Baylor vs Michigan State Odds & Pick for Saturday

Here's Baylor vs Michigan State odds and a pick for Saturday.

It is still extremely early in the college basketball season. Devolving into true “panic mode” would likely be an overreaction.

But if any team could use a huge, season-shifting victory, it's Michigan State.

The Spartans haven't come close to living up to their preseason billing. At 4-5 overall through nine games, MSU is off to its worst start since 2003-04. The Spartans are even worse against the number, sitting at 3-6 ATS with an average cover margin of -4.6 points per game.

Given how Tom Izzo’s squad is playing, a showdown with undefeated Baylor presents an opportunity to right the ship. Of course, it could also further bury MSU.

The Bears, meanwhile, have been a teamwide fireball, torching the nets from beyond the arc en route to ranking second nationally in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They have also found some stability defensively compared to last year’s mess.

Though the personnel are completely different, Baylor is once again a shot-making machine with countless perimeter weapons. The Bears rank first nationally in 3-point percentage, cashing in a staggering 46.1% of their triples so far. For context, second place is at 42.3%, a massive chasm.

That said, ShotQuality’s data projects a ton of regression coming, expecting Baylor to be making 10% fewer 3s than their current rate.

However, Baylor’s lack of reliance on the triple limits its susceptibility to the regression monster.

Baylor ranks just 233rd in 3-point attempt rate, a far cry from last year’s squad that ranked 25th and therefore needed triples to survive.

This year’s team is far more adept at getting easy baskets and to the stripe.

Point guard RayJ Dennis might have the best post-up game in the country for a perimeter player, while freshman big man Yves Missi’s mobility and athleticism have overwhelmed foes at the rim. Plus, wings Ja’Kobe Walter and Jayden Nunn get to the free-throw line at high rates via physical slashing.

Defensively, Baylor has size everywhere.

Even Dennis, listed at 6-foot-2, has plenty of length, and the Bears are giant at the 2 through 5 spots.

As a result, the Bears' defense has improved drastically year over year. But, similar to the offense, the regression monster looms in Baylor's defensive 3-point numbers. Foes are making just 27.2% from beyond the arc, well below ShotQuality’s assessment of 33%.

Unsurprisingly, a 4-5 start after major preseason hype has uncovered many warts.

And Michigan State’s offense is the primary culprit behind its early issues.

The dilemma has some “chicken or egg” to it.

MSU has not hit 3s this year, connecting on less than 30% of its long-range attempts. The Spartans also lack players who put real rim pressure on the defense, whether via the drive or in post-up situations.

Those problems exacerbate each other. Unafraid of the Spartans’ jump shooting, foes can sag into driving lanes, clogging the paint and decreasing the possibility of easy baskets. Izzo must find more ways to get his guards – or even versatile forward Malik Hall – into advantageous spots against rotating defenses.

Too often, the half-court attack devolves into Tyson Walker isolations, with the rest of the squad simply hoping the Spartan talisman can produce magic out of thin air. Junior wing Jaden Akins hasn't progressed, while senior point guard AJ Hoggard has regressed in almost all facets.

Fortunately, the defense has been provided a sturdy bedrock.

The Spartans are among the nation's elite in 2-point defense (28th), a staple of Izzo's best squads.

Though neither is an offensive threat, Mady Sissoko and Carson Cooper have proven to be capable rebounders and rim protectors, and mega-athlete Coen Carr also generates chaos.

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This is a classic tug-of-war between riding the hot team playing well (Baylor) or attempting to buy low on a sluggish performer out of the gates (Michigan State).

A compelling argument can be made for both sides, so it comes down to the number.

KenPom has this game at Baylor -4, BartTorvik comes in at Baylor -1.9, and SQ projects Baylor -2.6.

The crowd should be pro-Michigan State, given the game’s location in Detroit. The Spartans should also be far more desperate if that motivation angle matters to you.

Ultimately, I think this game is closer to a coin flip than the line indicates.

Izzo’s squad has its issues, and it certainly would feel better to back the scorching Bears, but this spot feels like one where MSU throws the kitchen sink at Baylor.

If regression hits Baylor on both ends, Sparty is a tremendous wager.

If not, there is still value in backing the undervalued Spartans in a “line in the sand” spot.

Pick: Michigan State +4.5 (Play to +3)