Houston vs Iowa State Pick & Prediction for Saturday

Houston takes on Iowa State on Saturday, March 16, at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN. Here's a Houston vs Iowa State pick and prediction for Saturday.

The Big 12 Tournament championship game is here. After a thrilling regular season that featured competitive games from start to finish, the best league in college basketball will conclude with the top two seeds in the conference tournament facing off head to head with a title on the line. 

The Houston Cougars and the Iowa State Cyclones matched up twice during the regular season, and perhaps unsurprisingly, they each gave each other their best game once. They split the regular-season matchups, with both teams protecting home court.

In many ways, these teams mirror each other — and that is what will make this such a fun championship game. This is the No. 1 defense in the country (Houston) vs. the No. 2 defense in the country (Iowa State). Both teams boast stellar floor generals at point guard in Jamal Shead and Tamin Lipsey. Both teams have shooting guards who can catch fire in L.J. Cryer — who is on the Wooden Award watch list — and Keshon Gilbert. They both rely on forcing turnovers and making nights frustrating for opposing offenses for 40 minutes.

This game will be a battle, and the winner will earn a well-deserved chance to cut down the nets. 

Houston has been the top-ranked team in all of college basketball since Dec. 1. While many fans and pundits have viewed UConn and Purdue as the two teams fighting for a national title, it is Houston who the metrics love even more.

The main reason why is their historically great defense. The Cougars rank in the top 10 in the country in eFG% defense, forced turnovers, 3-point percentage allowed, 2-point percentage allowed, block rate and steal rate.

On top of that, they have a stone-cold killer in the backcourt. Shead is the Big 12 Player of the Year and he has become one of the best perimeter players in the sport. He boasts the nation’s eighth-best assist rate, but he can also fill it up himself. He will be the best player on the floor in this game.

Many of the things you just read about Houston also apply to Iowa State. The Cyclones force the second-most turnovers in college basketball and they are top 100 in both 3-point percentage allowed and 2-point percentage allowed.

Iowa State relies on forcing turnovers, and the Cyclones are damn good at it. Lipsey and Gilbert are a nightmare tandem who can physically pressure any backcourt in the country. Opposing offenses do not get anything easy against Iowa State.

For that reason, the Cyclones will be comfortable playing the Cougars' style. This game will be played in the mud, and that’s just where both teams like it.

The one scary thing for Iowa State is that its offense has struggled lately. The Cyclones rank just 151st in adjusted offensive efficiency over the last month, which ranks last in the Big 12.

Given Iowa State’s offensive struggles, it's hard to bet against Houston here. While I expect a low-scoring, physical game, Shead’s shot-making will be the difference in a Houston cover — and a Big 12 championship.

Pick: Houston -5.5