Boise State vs New Mexico Odds, Pick for Wednesday

No. 19 New Mexico and Boise State will battle in The Pit on Wednesday night in a crucial game at the top of the Mountain West standings.

The Lobos are one of the hottest teams in the country, winning their last five to improve to 18-3 overall and 6-2 in conference play. Meanwhile, the Broncos are having another strong season, owning a 14-6 record and ranking just outside the top 50 in the NET rankings.

This is a huge matchup in the Mountain West, and I’m expecting a great battle between teams pushing for an invite to the NCAA tournament.

If you are someone who enjoys close games, you will like following coach Leon Rice’s team this season. Coming into last weekend, Boise State was tied for third in the country with nine wins by single digits. That trend has carried over into conference play, where all seven Broncos games have been settled by single digits.

Another strong trend has been the Boise State defense continuing to show up. Rice’s squad has held six of seven conference opponents below their scoring averages. That includes holding Colorado State to its lowest point total and fewest 3-pointers made, while forcing guard Isaiah Stevens into a season-high-tying six turnovers.

On the offensive end of the floor, four Broncos are averaging double figures in scoring. The leader is Tyson Degenhart (15.6 PPG), while O’Mar Stanley has stepped it up in conference play with 16.1 PPG against Mountain West opponents.

Over its five-game winning streak, New Mexico has won every game by double digits, with an average margin of victory of 20.8. Coach Richard Pitino’s team has won five straight conference games by double figures for the first time since the 2011-12 season.

One of the keys to this great run has been New Mexico getting healthy. Preseason All-Mountain West guards Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Jaelen House were only on the floor together for just over 37 minutes in the nonconference slate.

The Lobos have only had six games this season when all 12 scholarship players on the roster have been available. This could be a team to watch in March if this surge continues.

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One trend sticks out whenever Boise State has gone up against top competition this year: Those games tend to be low-scoring. But I don’t want to bet the total to go under because of how well New Mexico is playing offensively. So, my best bet is for the Broncos to fall under their team total at 71.5 or better.

In the 13 games for Boise State against teams inside the top 100 in the NET, it has failed to reach this total in all but two contests. This is the same offense that ranks near the bottom of the Mountain West in conference play in multiple categories by BartTorvik, including AdjO, EFG%, shooting percentage from inside the arc and points per possession.

Meanwhile, the Lobos have been stout defensively at home, and have improved on that end in conference play. New Mexico trails only San Diego State since the beginning of league action in AdjD, EFG% allowed and points per possession on defense.

We are likely reaching the top of the market on the Lobos' value on the spread, but I still don’t trust this Broncos offense against elite competition.

Pick: Boise State Team Total Under 71.5 or Better