NCAAB Odds, Pick for Cal vs San Diego State

The San Diego State Aztecs have a two top-75 KenPom wins over Saint Mary’s and Washington.

On Saturday, the Aztecs will face a weaker opponent in the California Golden Bears, but Cal has been a little shorthanded at the moment with Keonte Kennedy, Jalen Celestine, Devin Askew and Devin Curtis being out. The former two are questionable heading into this game, so this should help the Bears if they can play.

However, this is a game that should be played at a slow pace. Unlike last year, SDSU has been playing at a moderate tempo, but Cal is particularly slow. Although the Golden Bears are weak on the defensive end, they can nurse the clock.

Since the Aztecs are one of the best defensive teams in the country, this game should go under the total.

Cal hasn't had an ideal start to the season. The Bears have four losses on the books already with no final-result margin being larger than eight points.

Basically, they've played everyone closely, and they're always in the game because they can rebound well. They rank 33rd in offensive rebounding rate and 65th on the defensive end. This is one area in this game that they have an edge over SDSU, as the Aztecs rank no better than 100th in both offensive and defensive rebounding.

Cal launches 3s often, but if Celestine is injured or hobbled, the Bears don't have anyone shooting above 38% from outside. The Aztecs are also holding opponents to 30.4% from 3-point land.

One issue that could remain prevalent in this matchup is that Cal doesn't maintain control over the ball. It ranks 297th in turnover rate on offense and 248th on defense.

Meanwhile, the Aztecs are turning the opposition over 19.8% of the time. However, the Aztecs rank 110th in points per possession in transition, per Shot Quality. Even if they force Cal turnovers, they won't always execute.

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SDSU ranked 262nd in Adjusted Tempo last season, averaging 18.5 seconds per possession defensively.

This year, the Aztecs rank 150th in Adjusted Tempo and average 16.5 seconds per possession defensively.

If there's one thing Cal can do is slow a team down. The Golden Bears rank 225th in Adjusted Tempo and average 17.2 seconds per possession on offense. They also average 18.1 seconds per possession defensively.

This should be a slower game than SDSU has played this season. Look for the Aztecs to play more like last year's squad.

SDSU has done a phenomenal job of getting to the line, so this could be an area of concern for under-backers. The Aztecs rank 33rd in free-throw attempt rate, while Cal ranks 48th. Both rank below 100th on the defensive end, so fouling might be the main source of points in this one.

On the other hand, SDSU’s Rim & 3 Rate is 249th in the country. The Aztecs don't have an efficient offense because they tend to shoot a ton of mid-range shots.

Outside of 3s, where Cal thrives, the Aztecs will restrict their opponent defensively. Cal is not a phenomenal offensive team, even if that is the stronger part of its game. The Golden Bears rank 129th in Rim & 3 Rate, so this game contains two relatively inefficient offenses.

SDSU may play quickly this season, but Cal can hold opponents to its preferred tempo.

With that being the case, this game could see fewer total possessions than average.

Take this under to 143.

Pick: Under 145 (Play to 143)

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