NCAAB Best Bets for Sunday’s Conference Tournaments

Sunday brings us the end of the Big Ten regular season, and of course, even more college basketball conference tournament action.

Three conferences — the Missouri Valley, ASUN and Big South — will play their championships today, while seven more have multiple games in action.

With so much going on, our staff came through with seven best bets for Sunday's conference tournament matchups. So, let's make the most of it and close out the week with a trip to Green Dot City.

Read on for all seven of our college basketball conference tournament best bets — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more NCAAB picks.

On March 11, the Tar Heel State will launch North Carolina sports betting fully online. Pre-register today.

College Basketball Conference Tournament Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from Sunday's slate of conference tournament games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Doug Ziefel

I'm a fan of neutral-court unders as much as the next guy, but that trend doesn't apply to this matchup. On the third day of the CAA Tournament, the UNC Wilmington Seahawks are fresh.

We've seen this total move down off its opening number of 131, and it has been bouncing between 130 and 130.5. The resistance to the initial move stems from two things.

The first is what I mentioned above: The Seahawks are fresh. They haven't played in eight days, and it just so happens that their regular-season finale came against their opponent today.

Secondly, recent numbers show that this total is too low. The first meeting between these clubs ended with a total of 131, and the second was higher at 139.

However, it's important to note that these two teams split the meetings, and the victor controlled the tempo in each one. Towson brings the game to a snail's pace, ranking 358th in average offensive possession length.

Meanwhile, UNCW is nearly two seconds faster per possession. Since the Seahawks are the fresher team and the more efficient offensive club, we should expect them to control the tempo once again.

So, buck the trend and take the over.

Pick: Over 129.5 (Play to 130.5)

By Sean Paul

The Patriot League semifinal matchups are set, and one of the two games features the Boston Terriers taking on the Lehigh Mountain Hawks.

Boston is on fire at the perfect time, winning seven consecutive games heading into today’s meeting.

This angle, to me, comes down to pace. Boston plays with the 292nd-slowest pace in college basketball, while Lehigh ranks top-55 in adjusted tempo. These are totally contrasting styles, and if Boston limits Lehigh’s transition looks, I love BU’s chances.

It doesn't hurt that Boston head coach Joe Jones is a bonafide winner in March. Plus, the Terriers won the previous two meetings in tightly-contested finishes. Some people tend to back off when a team has to beat its opponent for the third time in one season, but it’s a trend to me.

Additionally, Boston will need scoring from Miles Brewster and Anthony Morales — the team’s two leading scorers. The Terriers don’t have any 15-plus points-per-game scorers in the arsenal, but Brewster and Morales can put up lofty numbers for an evening.

KenPom considers Boston the favorite by two points, and I tend to agree. That’s 3.5 points of value compared to where the line actually sits at Lehigh -1.5, so let’s roll with the Terriers on the moneyline here.

Pick: Boston ML +105

By Jim Root

The Southland Tournament may be viewed as a coronation of McNeese State — the Cowboys are as short as -500 to win at some books — but that doesn't mean betting opportunities don't exist elsewhere.

Enter New Orleans as a dog against in-state foe Southeastern Louisiana. Separated by less than an hour on the road, these two schools played twice this year, with SELA capturing both games — but only barely so in New Orleans.

The underdog Privateers’ biggest edge is having Jordan Johnson on their side.

Arguably the best non-McNeese guard in the league, Johnson can get anywhere on the court off the dribble. He's also a lethal perimeter threat, though his percentages suffered this year under an intense offensive workload.

The key to staying close here will be limiting SELA’s versatile forward tandem of Roger McFarlane and Nick Caldwell. Both are inside-out threats and can serve as mismatches against many Southland foes.

In the first meeting that New Orleans nearly won, the Privateers limited that duo to a combined 22 points and 15 rebounds. In the lopsided rematch, those numbers ballooned to 40 and 26.

Carlos Hart, Jamond Vincent and James Glisson will all be tasked with crucial defensive duties.

With Johnson as the catalyst and a concerted defensive effort, I expect this clash to go much more similarly to the first meeting when it came down to the final minute.

Pick: New Orleans +5.5 (Play to +5)

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By Scott Schaeffer

Chattanooga moved to the SoCon Tournament semifinals after an opening quarterfinal win over Wofford. A win on Sunday would mean a third SoCon Championship game appearance in as many years for the Mocs.

Head coach Dan Earl managed to lead his team to a season sweep over East Tennessee State this year. The Buccaneers have simply not played at the same level as the Mocs have throughout the year, but an upset win over UNC Greensboro in the quarterfinals propelled them into a position where they're now just two wins away from an NCAA Tournament bid.

ETSU’s defense has been the constant throughout the season for first-year coach Brooks Savage’s Bucs. Holding opponents to 66 and 62 points in the first two SoCon Tournament games is evidence of ETSU’s defensive identity.

However, it’s been the shooting performances of Ebby Asamoah and Quimari Peterson that have propelled the Buccaneers to victories in the SoCon Tournament.

Asamoah and Peterson combined to make nine 3-pointers in Saturday’s win over UNC Greensboro. Chattanooga will need to have its own defensive mentality on display to combat the confidence that's likely flowing through ETSU’s backcourt — and I believe it will.

To be clear, Chattanooga isn’t a stellar defensive team. It doesn't play with the same defensive identity and purpose it utilized under former coach Lamont Paris, who's now leading South Carolina with great success.

However, Trey Bonham and Randy Brady are prepared to take on the combination of Asamoah and Peterson with their recent play.

Bonham and Brady provided little to no offensive support during the Mocs’ win over Wofford in the quarterfinals, but they still breezed their way to a victory. Why? Brady and Bonham were a major reason Chattanooga held Wofford to 57 points.

Shooting performances are more of an unknown from game to game, but defense is one thing a team can carry forward after a stellar performance.

I expect Chattanooga’s defense to come out humming from the tip, building the Mocs an early lead that will lead to a victory and yet another appearance in the SoCon final.

Pick: Chattanooga 1H -4 (Play to -4.5)

By Ky McKeon

Though St. Thomas and North Dakota State are separated by just one conference win in the standings and one seed line in the Summit Tournament, these two teams’ true abilities are miles apart.

The Tommies rank 130 spots higher in KenPom than the Bison, and analytically, have been the Summit’s second-best team this season.

Of course, March is mad, and nothing means anything. But there’s reason to believe St. Thomas can handle NDSU tonight in Sioux Falls.

The Tommies are superior on both ends of the floor. They’ll force shaky NDSU ball handlers into poor decisions, they’ll put NDSU’s plodding bigs in space with their five-out motion offense and they won’t make mistakes of their own.

St. Thomas laid an egg in the second matchup against NDSU, but the dominant first matchup is more indicative of these two teams’ skill levels.

In Game 1, the Tommies survived uncharacteristically hot shooting from the Bison and controlled the middle, going 20-of-27 (74.1%) from the 2-point range.

Parker Bjorklund is a matchup problem for NDSU at the 5, and the Bison’s bigs can’t really punish the undersized Bjorklund on the other end.

The Tommies also have several options on the wing to throw at NDSU star Boden Skunberg. Shutting off the water to Skunberg’s offense means shutting off the water to the entire Bison offense.

We’re backing the better team tonight, led by one of the sharpest coaching minds in the sport in Johnny Tauer.

Pick: St. Thomas -4 (Play to -5)

By Matt Cox

Early-morning vultures picked off the best of it, as the Eastern Washington -10.5 opening number was immediately steamed up to -12. The market likes EWU, and it’s easy to see why.

First off, the Eagles are seeking to avenge last year’s early-round Big Sky Tournament exit when 9-seeded NAU stunned the defending regular-season champs in the first round.

Head coach David Riley, along with multiple key players, have cited that trauma as an extra motivator in this spot, especially against a team that nearly beat EWU a week ago.

For context, in the matchup between these two last Monday, the line closed 8.5 — thus, it’s reasonable to expect a 4-5 point swing in tonight’s affair given the shift from home venue to neutral site.

Granted, Eastern Washington struggled to put away the pesky Hornets, who have quietly covered six games in a row, but the motivational edge tonight is categorically different. EWU had already secured the top seed when these two played in a rather meaningless regular-season finale — tonight, it’s win or go home.

Assuming Riley adapts to a revamped Sac State attack, which no longer features postman hub Duncan Powell as the fulcrum, the Eagles should soar to a cover tonight in Boise.

Pick: Eastern Washington -12.5 (Play to -13)

By Jim Root

In the Sun Belt quarterfinals, James Madison laid waste to the Sun Belt’s 10-seed, Marshall, winning by 17 and leading by as many as 22. The game was never in question after JMU launched an opening 23-4 salvo midway through the first half.

The Dukes’ reward in the semifinals? The 11-seed Texas State Bobcats, who are playing their fourth game in six days thanks to the Sun Belt’s ladder-esque tournament format. The first of those games went to OT, and Texas State found a late surge yesterday against Troy to pull off the upset.

Unfortunately, JMU is not a team you want to play if you're worn down at all. These Dukes have plenty of depth, want to get up and down in transition and can get in trouble defenses with a variety of looks.

Texas State will undoubtedly try to slow the game down; running with the Dukes would be foolish.

Against JMU’s pressure, though, that's far easier said than done. In the lone matchup this year, JMU forced turnovers on 21.2% of the Bobcats’ possessions. Texas State succeeded in slowing the game down, but the Dukes still led by as many as 27 in the second half.

Finally, style points still matter to the Dukes. They would be in the at-large conversation with a Sun Belt title game loss to App State, hoping that 30 wins — including one at Michigan State — would sway the committee.

The eye test and metrics matter, so JMU has the incentive to win by as many as possible against what could be a tired foe.

Pick: James Madison -12.5 (Play to -13)

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