College Basketball Best Bets: Late-Night Picks for Texas Tech vs NC State, Washington State vs Drake, More (March 21)
Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Washington State’s Myles Rice.
This. Is. March.
It's been a fun day full of college basketball NCAA Tournament action, but it's not over yet — not by a long shot.
Our NCAAB writers came through with four best bets for the three latest games on Thursday's March Madness slate: NC State vs. Texas Tech, Samford vs. Kansas and Drake vs. Washington State.
So, let's make one last trip to Green Dot City. And then we can do it all again tomorrow.
Read on for all four of our college basketball best bets for Thursday's late-night NCAA Tournament games — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more March Madness picks.
Thursday's Late-Night College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from Thursday night's slate of NCAA Tournament games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 9:40 p.m. | ||
| 9:40 p.m. | ||
| 9:55 p.m. | ||
| 10:05 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
NC State vs. Texas Tech
By John Feltman
The biggest news of the matchup between the Wolfpack and Red Raiders is the health status of Texas Tech's Warren Washington. Washington was seen putting up shots and moving around easily in an open practice yesterday.
He’s a critical aspect for Texas Tech simply due to his physicality on both ends of the floor. He’s the perfect player to contain Wolfpack big man DJ Burns Jr.
It was a terrific week for the Wolfpack in Washington D.C., but it’s time for a reality check. The Pack struggled from deep through most of conference play, but they caught absolute fire from deep during the ACC Tournament.
Not only are the Red Raiders a difficult matchup for the Pack offense, but their defense is also in trouble. Texas Tech’s starting five is amongst the country’s best in Offensive Efficiency, and the Pack are 286th in effective field-goal percentage allowed.
The line has ticked down a bit; I’m assuming there's public recency bias on the Wolfpack. If Washington is good to go, the line will certainly climb back up.
Action Network’s Evan Abrams also threw out an interesting betting angle that’s worth mentioning: Teams entering the NCAA Tournament off a loss of 20-plus points are 23-10-1 ATS (70%) in the first round since 2005.
The Red Raiders got clobbered in the Big 12 Tournament, but that was without Washington. Expect the Red Raiders to steal the show.
Pick: Texas Tech -4.5 (Play to -6)
By Matt Gannon
To be completely honest, I don’t love Texas Tech, but this is Market Dynamics 101.
NC State is the hottest team in the country right now. It rattled off five straight wins — including victories over Duke and in-state rival North Carolina — to grab the ACC Tournament title and earn an 11-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
The Wolfpack are going to be an extremely popular pick against the spread and in bracket pools, so we’ll go the other way.
Even though I don’t love Texas Tech and simply said we'll just "go the other way,” there’s some more rationale behind this pick.
To start, the Red Raiders are far more battle-tested than NC State is. Playing in the Big 12 is an absolute gauntlet game in and game out.
Also, the Red Raiders’ offense should really be able to exploit NC State defensively. In terms of effective field-goal percentage and 2-point field goal percentage, the Red Raiders shoot it far better than NC State defends it.
The Wolfpack have a ton more pressure and have had time to think about the game in front of them. I expect a close game, but the Red Raiders will win and cover in the end.
Pick: Texas Tech -4.5 (Play to -5.5)
Samford vs. Kansas
By D.J. James
Everyone is all over Samford, and there’s a good reason. The Bulldogs are a Cinderella favorite after news broke on Tuesday that Kevin McCullar Jr. is out for the season. This wasn’t necessarily unexpected, but Kansas head coach Bill Self confirmed it.
It looks like Hunter Dickinson will go for Kansas, and the Jayhawks will need him.
Even still, Kansas had major issues down the stretch, and one of these glaring issues was defending the 3-point arc. Samford ranks seventh in effective field-goal percentage, and a large piece of that is converting a lot of 3s. The Bulldogs hit 39% from deep as a unit.
The Jayhawks are allowing opponents to shoot one of the highest 3-point attempt rates in the country. In addition, opponents are hitting about 34% from outside.
Samford will have issues on the boards, and Dickinson could give it a hard time. That said, Kansas is not very good on the offensive glass, so if anything, KU will just be limiting second-shot attempts for the Bulldogs.
This shouldn’t be too much of a problem because Samford shoots 55.5% from 2-point range. Kansas is much better at defending the interior, but the Jayhawks still rank below 100th in defense at the rim, per ShotQuality.
Expect Samford to manufacture buckets relatively easily against a blue-blooded Kansas team. Take it to +5.5.
Pick: Samford +7.5 (Play to +5.5)
Drake vs. Washington State
Drake is one of the hottest teams in the country entering tonight’s game against No. 7 seed Washington State.
The Bulldogs earned a 10-seed after winning the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, but I believe they’re overvalued heading into this first-round contest.
Washington State will have its hands full against Drake and struggled toward the end of the season, but I think the late-season struggles — in conjunction with Drake’s ascension — are overshadowing the fact that this is a highly competent team that's capable of winning big games.
For the Cougars, look no further than their season series against Arizona, which they swept. Now, I won’t put too much emphasis on a one-off series, but the point is that Washington State has the ability to perform at the highest level in the country.
A couple of things stand out to me in this matchup and reinforce my assertion that the line is too punitive for Wazzu here.
First and most importantly, Washington State has an excellent defense that ranks 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, which presents a very difficult test against the 39th-ranked Drake offense.
Another area that jumps out to me is the battle of the boards. Drake is not a tall squad, and it’s struggled on the offensive glass this season, ranking 312th in offensive rebound rate.
Meanwhile, the Cougars are one of the taller teams in the nation and should have no issue winning the rebound battle.
It’s undeniable that Drake is a legitimate threat to Washington State; however, I just don’t think the line is right in this contest. There’s too much value to pass up with Washington State at plus-money.
My model is projecting the Cougars at -125, and I would take them to win outright at -110 or longer.
Pick: Washington State ML +105 (Play to -110)
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