College Basketball Betting Tip: Exploiting ATS Streaks in Southern Utah-Montana State
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Montana State Bobcats guard Harald Frey
- Montana State, on two game ATS winning streak, is a home favorite against Southern Utah, on a two game ATS losing streak, on Monday (9 p.m. ET).
- Using Bet Labs, we show how contrarian gamblers can exploit ATS streaks to find a profitable betting system.
Monday’s college basketball slate is light on big name teams, with only three Top 25 squads taking the court. Bettors looking for action will need to handicap mid-major matchups, which can be difficult given the limited exposure most gamblers have to these conferences.
Despite not being able to name all the teams in the Big Sky Conference, bettors can find value in these small conference games by exploiting recency bias — a tendency often found in recreational gamblers that put too much weight on the most recent outcomes.
One example is that casual bettors think a team that has covered the spread in back-to-back games will beat the number the next time they lace up their sneakers just because they did in the prior contests. Conversely, the public often fades schools that have failed to cash tickets in consecutive games.
Contrarian gamblers can take advantage of these tendencies. According to Bet Labs, a team that has lost two in a row against the spread (ATS) and is facing an opponent on a two-game ATS winning streak has gone 763-720-28 (51.4%) ATS since 2005.
This strategy can be improved by focusing on road underdogs that are on an ATS losing streak when they square off against a team on an ATS winning streak.
Following this system, gamblers have gone 267-213-12 (55.6%) ATS and a $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $4,012 since 2005. By exploiting recency bias this system has managed to be profitable in 11 of the past 14 seasons.
Montana State opened as a 6-point favorite vs. Southern Utah on Monday (9 p.m. ET). A majority of spread tickets are on MSU, which has covered two straight. Southern Utah has dropped back-to-back games against the spread, yet the line has moved from +6 to +5.5.
When the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages, this is called reverse line movement and is an indication of sharp money. The line movement and history is in Southern Utah’s favor.
Bettors should ignore the Thunderbirds recent ATS struggles, the Bobcats ATS winning streak and take the points with the road team.