NCAAB Odds, Picks: Three Man Weave’s Monday Best Bets, Including Baylor vs. Texas, More

NCAAB Odds, Picks: Three Man Weave’s Monday Best Bets, Including Baylor vs. Texas, More article feature image
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Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Sir’Jabari Rice & Timmy Allen (Texas)

After the Big 12 flexed its muscles vs. the SEC over the weekend, the league will transition back to conference play on Monday night.

The Big 12 highlights a rather thin slate, but Jim Root of Three Man Weave has three value spots to target from a betting perspective.

Dive in below and get the top college basketball odds and best bets for Monday night.


Monday's Three Man Weave College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Jim is targeting from Monday's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game
Time
Pick
8 p.m. ET
South Dakota State 1H +1
8 p.m. ET
Alcorn State +5.5
9 p.m. ET
Under 148
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

South Dakota State vs. Kansas City

Monday, Jan. 30
8 p.m. ET
Jackrabbit Sports Network
South Dakota State 1H +1

By Jim Root

The Summit race may be nearly decided already, but that does not make certain regular season games less important.

South Dakota State and Kansas City are in a four-way battle for the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the Summit Tournament. Avoiding the Oral Roberts half of the bracket to delay playing the dominant powerhouse as long as possible would be significant.

The visiting Jackrabbits were the presumed runner-up in the preseason. Though they lost their two stars — Douglas Wilson and Baylor Scheierman — they returned plenty of production and added key pieces to replace them.

The actual season has been far more up and down — partially due to a brutal non-conference slate — but the upside remains.

Sophomore Zeke Mayo’s emergence has given hope that SDSU will realize that upside. He had some early hiccups while taking over more ball-handling duties, but he has been on fire the past five games, with 25.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game.

With Mayo blossoming into a star, the Jackrabbits are more talented and experienced than Kansas City. The host Kangaroos are exceptionally young, ranking 338th nationally in D-I experience, per KenPom. Five freshmen play regularly.

Of note: the spot is difficult. This is South Dakota State’s third road game in five days (an unfortunate quirk due to rescheduling a game from Dec. 21).

Also, the Jackrabbits have been somewhat short-handed. Alex Arians, Charlie Easley and Luke Appel — three starter-caliber players — have missed recent games.

I remain steadfast in my belief that SDSU is the clear better team. The travel and injuries could hurt down the stretch, though. Consequently, I will take the Jackrabbits in the first half and hopefully eliminate the possibility of second-half exhaustion.

Pick: South Dakota State 1H +1 (Play to PK)

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Alcorn State vs. Grambling

Monday, Jan. 30
8 p.m. ET
Tigers All-Access
Alcorn State +5.5

By Jim Root

As usual, Monday offers an extensive extra board slate featuring the MEAC and the SWAC.

I have my sights set on Alcorn State, the runner-up in the preseason SWAC poll and last year’s regular-season champion.

Grambling State has earned the right to be a favorite here. A transfer-laden roster has stacked the Tigers with talent, specifically dominant forward Carte’are Gordon, a former top-50 recruit.

A spread of 5.5 is too many, though. Alcorn State has surged in league play after a hellish non-conference slate that saw the Braves not play a single home game.

That context helps explain why I believe Alcorn State is still somewhat undervalued.

The most important matchup factor is whether the Braves can handle — or at least limit — Gordon in the paint.

Alcorn lacks true size in the paint, but head coach Byron Smith’s scheme should shine. It’s a creative blend of pressure while remaining compact.

The Braves want to stress opposing ball-handlers while still eliminating paint touches. In a league that largely lacks perimeter shooting, surrendering a multitude of jump shots is quite clever.

Grambling is loath to take 3s, ranking 345th nationally in 3-point attempt rate. If Alcorn can force the Tigers to live on the perimeter, it will be a significant victory on the path to covering.

Another significant edge lies in free-throw shooting. Given both teams’ free-throw rates on both sides of the ball, this could be a free-throw contest. Alcorn is by far the more proficient squad, knocking down 70.7% of its free throws, compared to Grambling’s 63.6%.

In a close game, that could be the pivotal difference.

Pick: Alcorn State +5.5 (Play to +4)


Baylor vs. Texas

Monday, Jan. 30
9 p.m. ET
ESPN
Under 148

By Jim Root

There's no rest for the weary in the brutal Big 12. After both playing huge games in the final SEC/Big 12 Challenge this weekend, Baylor and Texas must quickly turn around and meet for a crucial contest in the Big 12 title race.

Both teams still have a shot at the crown. Texas is in better shape, sitting in a three-way tie atop the league at 6-2. Baylor is a game back, but the Bears are rolling. They have won six straight games, and earning a victory in a difficult road game would vault them into the thick of the title picture.

The Bears’ recent surge has come from a surprising adjustment: slowing the game down. They have hit the brakes offensively in league play, averaging 19.5 seconds per possession, per KenPom. That’s a drastic drop from 17.5 seconds overall on the season.

Few teams in the entire country have seen such an extreme change. With perhaps the best backcourt in the country, Baylor has made the bet that it can outscore its foes in the half-court.

For its part, Texas has proven to be a pace-taker. Kansas State sped it up for an 82-possession game, while Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Tennessee all kept the tempo down at 66 possessions.

If Baylor wants this to be slow, it likely will be.

The concern is efficiency. Baylor has the best offense and worst defense in the league during Big 12 play. The Bears have been burned at the rim, and Texas can certainly score inside.

Some of that is built into this number already, though.

Given the edge I believe I have in pace, I’m willing to risk that efficiency will not totally explode.


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