College Basketball Pick, Odds for Nebraska vs Michigan (Sunday, March 10)

Last Sunday, Nebraska defeated Rutgers 67-56 to improve to 21-9 and 11-8 in Big Ten play. Most projections have the Huskers as either a 9- or 10-seed as of now. But while Nebraska appears to be safely in the field, it absolutely cannot afford a loss at Michigan on Sunday.

Michigan’s last game also came last Sunday, a 84-61 loss to rival Ohio State. The Wolverines fell to 3-16 in Big Ten play, losing their seventh straight game in the process. That streak started with a 79-59 loss to Nebraska in Lincoln.

This time around, Nebraska will be looking to complete the season sweep of a team it has struggled against recently. Michigan has won eight of the past 10 meetings in this series, but Nebraska is a 6-point favorite in Ann Arbor on Sunday.

Let's get to our Michigan vs. Nebraska prediction and pick.

For the second straight season, guard Keisei Tominaga is averaging in double figures. Tominaga leads the team at 14 points per game and is shooting 35% from beyond the arc. He is joined by forwards Rienk Mast and Juwan Gary and guard Brice Williams, who are each averaging over 12 points per game.

Mast, a 6'10" forward from the Netherlands, does a little bit of everything for the Huskers. He leads the team at 7.9 rebounds and three assists per game. He is also knocking down one 3-pointer per game while shooting 34.8% from deep. Gary and Williams each average about six rebounds and over one steal per game.

Nebraska has no problems getting up 3s and playing fast. It averages 9.4 made triples per game (27th in the nation) on 26.4 attempts (31st). It also averages just 16.4 seconds per offensive possession, 49th-shortest in the country. As a whole, Nebraska ranks 43rd in adjusted offensive efficiency — but it has been even better on the defensive end.

The Huskers are 30th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and third in Big Ten play. They rank in the top 15 nationally in both effective field goal percentage and 2-point percentage defense. They also have gotten a bit lucky, as opponents are making just 68% of their free throws. Over its past six games, Nebraska is allowing just 61.1 points per game.

Michigan has its leader Dug McDaniel back at full capacity after he was suspended for six road games. McDaniel has scored in double figures in all but one game this season and is averaging 16.6 per game on the season. He also leads the team with 4.6 assists per game.

While McDaniel returned, Michigan lost transfer forward Olivier Nkamhoua for the season to a wrist injury he suffered against Michigan State. Since Nkamhoua went down, Michigan has averaged just 62.8 points per game over its past four games.

With the offensive power outage, Michigan has dropped to 13th in Big Ten play in adjusted offensive efficiency. Michigan is making just 50% of its 2-point attempts, which ranks 198th in the country. The Wolverines also have really struggled protecting the ball, ranking 283rd in turnover percentage. They average 13 turnovers per game and averaged 16 in their last two games despite McDaniel's return on the road.

Michigan does not get many of those possessions back with its defense. It forces just 9.6 turnovers per game and ranks 341st in turnover percentage on the defensive end. It also ranks 279th in defensive rebounding percentage. With extra possessions, opponents have eviscerated Michigan's defense this season.

The Wolverines are allowing over seven made 3s per game and opponents are shooting 36% from beyond the arc, the 315th-worst mark in the country. They are also 234rd or worse in effective field goal percentage and 2-point percentage defense. They have fallen to 184th in adjusted defensive efficiency and last in Big Ten play.

Michigan has allowed over 80 points in each of its past three games and is allowing 82.5 points per game during its seven-game losing streak.

In this matchup, we have a case of two teams trending in opposite directions.

Michigan has regularly been losing by double digits. Eight of its past nine losses have been by double digits and the other was by eight points. The Wolverines are just 2-8 against the spread over their past 10 games and 8-22 ATS this season. With the status of head coach Juwan Howard a question mark beyond this season, the team may be checked out on the season.

Nebraska, meanwhile, has covered in seven of its past 10 games. More recently, it has won five of its past six games by double digits. Here, the Huskers are just 6-point road favorites. They should find a lot of success against a struggling Wolverines defense.

I expect Nebraska will ride its offense to a comfortable victory on the road.

Pick: Nebraska -6 (Play to -9.5)

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