College Basketball Odds, Pick for TCU vs Kansas State

The Kansas State Wildcats are in desperation mode with a 15-9 record, and they haven't been great at home. They just dropped a home game to BYU, and they need a win over the TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday.

TCU is much better on the offensive end than Kansas State is. The Frogs can get out in transition and finish at the rim. Kansas State will hope its defense can hold its own because the Wildcats offense isn't too explosive.

Here's college basketball odds and a pick for TCU vs. Kansas State.

TCU is among the nation's best transition offenses.

Per ShotQuality, the Horned Frogs rank fourth nationally in transition PPP. They consistently force turnovers (26th in defensive turnover rate), generating quick-strike offense from quick-handed defense.

Kansas State's a shaky ball-handling team, which could be a significant problem on Saturday.

TCU is also one of the most effective teams at attacking the rim. Meanwhile, Kansas State can't protect the rim, ranking 221st in at-the-rim PPP allowed. The Wildcats hold opponents to only 46% shooting from the interior, but that might be luck-based, and TCU's interior-based offense could easily force regression.

The Horned Frogs rank top-50 nationally in Open 3 Rate, hitting 34% of their 3s on the year, while the Wildcats rank sub-300th in Open 3 Rate allowed.

Emanuel Miller and Trevian Tennyson shoot over 40% from deep, so look for them to hit their open triples.

On the other end of the floor, Kansas State lets it rip from deep, but the Wildcats don't make many. They rank sub-300th nationally in 3-point shooting, canning only 31% of shots. TCU ranks top-20 nationally in Open 3 Rate allowed, so the Wildcats should struggle to generate open shots.

In addition, TCU is relatively good at limiting 3-point opportunities. Thus, Kansas State needs to find some open shots inside the arc, where it shoots a pedestrian 52%.

The Wildcats can crash the offensive glass, ranking top 40 nationally in offensive rebounding rate. But TCU is a much better rebounding team on both ends of the court, negating that potential advantage.

Not all is lost for K-State. The Wildcats can score with cutters or off-ball screens, where TCU's defense is vulnerable. Even if the 3s don't fall, K-State can use secondary motion actions to generate interior offense.

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Ultimately, TCU is the better team.

It's a bad matchup for Kansas State. The Frogs are more efficient offensively and should win the rebounding and turnover battles.

The Wildcats would need to overcome a big discrepancy in key metrics while shooting the lights out, and I don't see that happening.

I'll take the Frogs to win and cover.

Pick: TCU +1.5 (Play to -1.5)

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